2010 NC Senate Stats

These are the latest 12 polls from the NC Senate race. The set Marshall(H) and Burr(H) represents the poll numbers with the house effect of the respective pollster factored in. Rasmussen has a house effect of R+5, Public Policy Polling has one of R+1 and to my knowledge, Survey USA is among the most reliable pollsters and has no house effect.
Long story short: Marshall has made solid headway, but she still has a ways to go before she can establish a lead over Burr. She has led in no polls, but has trailed Burr by only 1 point in 2 polls. With the house effect, Marshall leads in one poll and ties Burr in another. Only two pollsters have done a serious amount of research in this race; I expect more of a variety of pollsters within the next few weeks,as this race is looking very interesting. I rate this a Tossup race.

Breaking: Burr 44%, Marshall 43%...or Marshall 45%, Burr 41%

Today, in a poll released by the conservative pollster Rasmussen Reports, incumbent GOP senator Richard Burr is in a statistical tie with his Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall. The last Rasmussen poll had Burr leading 50-36.

More importantly, it has been proven and well known that Rasmussen polls favor GOP candidates by an average of 5 points. Thus Burr's ostensible 44-43 victory turns into a 45-41 loss when the pollster's bias is factored in; this is called the house effect.

Burr is in very tough shape for a Republican incumbent, he is easily the most vulnerable GOP incumbent; his Republican peers in states like South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama are solidly ahead in the polls. These numbers are proof that NC will be a competitive race this year and it could very probably be the Democrat's 'sleeper' race. A few months ago, Burr led by 18 points, no he is tied. The trend is undoubtedly in the Democrat's favor. The way I see it is come November, NC will join WA and CA as states sending two Democratic women to the Senate.

Congratulations Elaine!

Last night, NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall won the Democratic primary runoff over state legislator Cal Cunningham. In December, I joined Marshall's campaign and endorsed her, so I was quite excited to see her win last night. I was impressed with her record of taking on institutions like Wall Street and lobbyists.
Elaine is a fighter with a can-do spirit who has a history of winning as the underdog. When she first ran for NC Sec. of State in 1996, her opponent was NASCAR legend Richard Petty, a household name. Despite Petty's fame, Marshall won. This victory is also somewhat of a setback for national Democrats, as Cunningham had their unofficial backing.
This has not been as good primary season for me, as MilesC's Progressive Politics Post endorsed Arlen Specter in PA and Bill Halter in AR, both losing candidates; needless to say, Marshall's win was a relief! Ideologically, Elaine was considered the most liberal candidate in the field of Democrats; this is certainly good news for progressives.
Marshall edged out Cunningham 60-40, however turnout was extremely low. I will go into the particulars and unique dynamics of this NC race in a later post, but for now, Democrats truly have reason to be excited. Cunningham has thrown his weight behind Marshall, so the party should be fairly unified as it moves forward. Again, NC Democrats should be excited; they have chosen a top-tier challenger to run against a mediocre incumbent.
Looking forward, Marshall will certainly need to continue fighting, as the environment of this election year is not particularly favorable towards Democrats, especially in the south. Burr has kept a low profile and based on his own merits, he is a subpar senator; I consider him nothing more than a talking suit. Burr won with only 51.6% in 2004, so he is considered vulnerable. This year, the only thing buoying his numbers is the 'R' behind his name. Once NC voters are more familiar with Marshall, Burr's advantage will evaporate. Any time an incumbent polls below 50%, they are considered in potentially in danger; the latest poll has Burr leading by a mere 45-39 margin.