2010 Arkansas Senate Stats

Ouch. Lincoln is trailing Boozman by an almost 2-1 margin. I've already blogged rather extensively on this race, so I won't go into much detail. In short, Lincoln's vote for healthcare reform is holding her numbers down like a boat anchor; while Lincoln and her primary challenger were at each other's necks, Boozman was smoothly riding the high GOP tide. Even with house effects factored in, Lincoln doesn't hold Boozman under 60% and on two occasions, her numbers have slipped under 30%. I think Bill Clinton will be back in Arkansas quite frequently...
Unfortunatly, for at least the time being, I'd rate this Strong Boozman.

2010 Senatorial Race Poll Trends from May to Early June

This is a map of the general trends of polls for the 2010 midterms from May to June. Blue states are states trending more Democrat, red states trend more GOP and purple states have remained relativity static. This map is not designed to show who is winning rather, who has gained the most ground.
For instance, during May, in the Iowa race, Democrat Roxanne Conlin has come within 9 points of incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley. Up until then, Conlin had been trailing by 15+ points, thus Iowa is trending more Democrat and is red on my map.
Conversely, Arkansas is going more GOP. Because of the bruising Democratic primary where Lincoln and Halter are attacking each other, Republican John Boozman has gained ground. In one poll, he polled at 66% to Lincoln's 28%; thats huge.
Note that the states trending Dem outnumber their GOP counterparts by a 2-to-1 ratio. This suggests that the Dems are coming back from the 'brink.' In mid-May Republicans were ahead in 22 states to the Democrats' 10. With a strong candidate in Joe Sestak, I'm looking for a solid Dem lead in PA and I'm looking for Harry Reid to improve over his polarizing opposition while I expect Lee Fisher to make more headway in OH. I'd like to see Democrats favored in at least 13 states by the end of the month.

Notable races trending GOP:

WA: Popular incumbent Patty Murray (right) lost ground when two-time failed GOP candidate Dino Rossi announced his challenge for her Senate seat. Most polls are overemphasizing the impact of Rossi's entrance into this race. Wit the exception of Rossi, WA is the GOP bench was full of weak no-name candidates. WA is a liberal state so Rossi's bounce will likely be ephemeral at best; this race leans Murray.

WI: Relatively popular Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold, a leading Senatorial liberal, gets a challenge from business man Ron Johnson. Still, Johnson has minimal name recognition and Feingold is one of the most respected senators in Congress due to his legislative prowess and unapologetic progressive stances. In a conservative poll, Feingold leads 2 points; this is a Likely Democrat race.

IL: GOP Congressman Paul Kirk took modest lead over Democrat Alexi Giannolias, but since then Kirk has been battered with things such as exaggerations of his military record and gay rumors. No significant polling has been done lately. This is a tossup race.

Notable races trending Democrat:


PA: This looks more and more like a Democratic hold. Since ousting 5-term incumbent Arlen Specter, Democratic Congressman and former Navy Admiral Joe Sestak (right) has enjoyed modest leads over the far-right GOP nominee Pat Toomey, except from one freak outlier poll. Toomey will be the next Santorum if elected (Santorum lost 59-41 in 2006). I'm expecting the far-right Teat Partying Toomey to lose to Sestak by a decent single digit margin if about 6 or 7 points.

NC: Democrat Elaine Marshall (left) came back from trailing GOP incumbent Richard Burr by 14 points; in a recent poll, she is nearly tied with Burr. Marshall is still locked in a June 8 runoff against Cal Cunningham which she is expected to win. A post-primary bounce will likely set in after. Then, perhaps Marshall will lead Burr. This race is often written off as Leaning GOP by many prominent political sites; however, come November, this race will become one to watch. This is a Tossup race.

NV: This race initially seemed like a solid GOP pickup. However, with the NV GOP imploding, Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid looks safer by the day. GOP frontrunner Sue Lowden (right) was plagued by illegal finance accusations as well as stupid comments, e.g "chickens for check-ups." Lowden has since lost significant ground to the far-right GOP candidate, Sharron Angle . Angle now leads the GOP pack and it looks likely the GOP will nominate Angle this Tuesday. Ironically, Reid polls better against Angle than he does against Lowden. If Angle is the GOP nominee, this race leans Democrat; independents will flock to Reid over the Tea Party-sympathizing Angle. If Lowden is nominated, this election is a tossup.

CA: Typically, this would a be safe Democratic race due to the political lean of the state. However, this race is similar to that of NV except Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer (left) enjoys higher approval ratings in her home state than Reid does in his. For a while, it looked like former congressman Tom Campbell would be the GOP nominee; a fiscal moderate and a social liberal, he actually polled ahead of Boxer. However, former McCain campaign advisor Carly Fiorina has pulled ahead; Fiorina has the endorsement of Sarah Palin. I doubt Campbell can recover by Tuesday, as Fiorina leads by double digits and has outspent Campbell 4-to-1. Boxer lucked out; Fiorina is the Sharron Angle of this race. Boxer's numbers against Fiorina have actually gotten better while she lost ground against Campbell. The GOP will blow away its chances of winning with a Fiorina nomination. Also, the Republicans have spent like crazy attacking each other; Boxer by contrast carries zero primary wounds and has spent relatively little. Thus Fiorina will emerge battered and broke from the primary only to face an untouched, well-financed Boxer. CA trends Democrat because Boxer's numbers against the presumptive nominee, Fiorina have gone up. Boxer is a polarizing figure, she is loved by liberals as much as she is loathed by conservative. However, Fiorina's campaign thus far has been utterly comical at times and I expect more gaffes within the next few months from her.

Progressive Halter looks good to nab Corporatist Lincoln's re-election prospects

Sen. Blanche Lincoln could be the next incumbent to lose a party primary on Tuesday, when she faces Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter in a run-off for the Arkansas Democratic nomination. With Halter leading Lincoln 49%-45% in the latest poll, Sen. Lincoln seems poised to join the ranks of Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Sen. Bob Bennett(R-UT), the two other Senatorial incumbents to be ousted this primary season. Since the original May 18 primary, Halter has consistently led Lincoln by 2 or 3 points in the polls. Remember, the Sunday before the PA Dem. primary, Sestak only led Specter by 1 yet pulled out an 8-point win over the incumbent; its now the Sunday before the AR runoff and Halter leads Lincoln by 4,based on the PA results, I can only imagine how much Halter will win by!
In the primary Lincoln got 44.5% of the vote, Halter received 42.5% and a third candidate D.C Morrison clocked in 13%. Morrison was a more conservative Democrat than Lincoln, if that is even possible. There are 2 scenarios concerning to whom Morrison's share will go to. First, based on his ideological stance, you would assume that he got only the most conservative of Democratic voters; thus hus votes would go ti Lincoln, giving her 57.5% percent of the vote. However, Morrison voters may have been from the anti-incumbent crowd; they weren't going to send Lincoln to Washington again and they weren't crazy about Halter either. If this is the case, Morrison's voters, or the at least the ones who show up at the polls, will likely choose the lesser of the two evils and vote for the non-incumbent Halter. To be perfectly honest Lincoln's situation reminds of some lyrics from Coldplay's song 'Clocks'; "Lights go out and I can't be saved, the tides that I've tried to swim against have brought me down upon my knees. Oh, I beg, I beg and plead..."
Arkansas Democrats have a clear choice: a fraud who undermines the causes of the Democrats from within their own caucus who sells out to corporate interests, or a progressive populist who is familiar to the needs of Arkansans and is loyal to the lofty ideas of the Democratic party. GO BILL!!

Admittedly, from a polling perspective the general election looks rather bleak. AR's sole GOP congressman from either house, Rep. John Boozman seems to be the 800-pound gorilla. When matched against Lincoln, Boozman approaches 60% while she is stuck in the mid-30's. Halter polls slightly stronger; his support is generally about 40% while Boozman gets about 55%. Thus, if Lincoln is the Democrat's nominee, this seat is lost, lost, lost. Halter is very much the outsider in this race; should he be nominated, he will face a 5-term House incumbent. If the mood of the general election is anti-incumbent as well, look for Halter's numbers to improve.
Lincoln's biggest bargaining chips both in the primary and the general election, should she make it that far, will be her Chairmanship of the Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, as she is the only Arkansan to ever hold that post, and her endorsement from Bill Clinton. If she faces Boozman in the fall, she will cling to her Chairmanship like dittoheads cling to boss Rush Limbaugh. The benefits of the Clinton endorsement are obviously less than tangible; Lincoln has not made headway in the polls and to Arkansans, I have a feeling Clinton is seen as somewhat of a deserter, as he has moved onto bigger and better things since his AR governorship. Hopefully, for Halter's Clinton is viewed in AR much the same way Sen. Max Baucus is in his home state, as a 'beltway insider' who is far removed from local politics. Ironically, Halter was on Clinton's economic team that balanced the budget.
Democrats everywhere should prop up as many progressives as they can. If we, as a party, try to preserve our Congressional majorities with dummies like Lincoln, the results will be disastrous! This year we will oust Lincoln and in 2012, I encourage the good people of CT to replace that loser Joe Lieberman and for progressives in Nebraska to set their sites on that chameleon Ben Nelson. Imagine how much better the healthcare bill would have been if we had more liberals like Pelosi in Congress. IN matters such as these, Lincoln has taken decidedly Republican stances.
However, the general election, the groups that have heavily helped Halter, such as MoveON.org and the Seirra Club could very much come back to bite him. Remember, we'd be running a progressive in Red State America, Halter would sharply contrast with former AR Senate Democrats. AR has typically sent moderate and conservative Democrats ,such as Lincoln, Pryor and Bumpers, to the the Senate. This is most probably because the Yellow Dog Dixicrats are still strong in AR. When the Democratic party was the more conservative party, its members would rather vote for a 'yellow dog' over a Republican. This attitude still prevails on the Congressional and statewide level, even as the Democratic party has embraced liberalism. However, with AR trending more GOP a the Presidential level I expect Republicans to have an easier time getting elected. AR was the state that resisted the 2008 Obama tide the most; it gave Bush 54% in 2004 but McCain almost 60% in 2008.
It is quite ironic that in 2008, AR's other senator, Mark Pryor (left) had no GOP opposition and coasted to re-election with 80% of the vote. Pryor is about at the same place ideologically as Lincoln. These two are both members of the the group I call the 'Conservative Quintet' along with Ben Nelson (D-NB), Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA); these 5 are the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus. Anyway, it is ironic that Pryor essentially got a free pass while Lincoln is in for the fight of her career. Both Pryor and Lincoln personify the conservative lines taken by Arkansas Democrats; their credentials include such things as votes against the final healthcare bill.
Thus, MC56's Progressive Politics Post is proud to endorse Bill Halter for his Senatorial bid and wishes him the best in the primary and the general election in November!