2010 Senatorial Race Poll Trends from May to Early June

This is a map of the general trends of polls for the 2010 midterms from May to June. Blue states are states trending more Democrat, red states trend more GOP and purple states have remained relativity static. This map is not designed to show who is winning rather, who has gained the most ground.
For instance, during May, in the Iowa race, Democrat Roxanne Conlin has come within 9 points of incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley. Up until then, Conlin had been trailing by 15+ points, thus Iowa is trending more Democrat and is red on my map.
Conversely, Arkansas is going more GOP. Because of the bruising Democratic primary where Lincoln and Halter are attacking each other, Republican John Boozman has gained ground. In one poll, he polled at 66% to Lincoln's 28%; thats huge.
Note that the states trending Dem outnumber their GOP counterparts by a 2-to-1 ratio. This suggests that the Dems are coming back from the 'brink.' In mid-May Republicans were ahead in 22 states to the Democrats' 10. With a strong candidate in Joe Sestak, I'm looking for a solid Dem lead in PA and I'm looking for Harry Reid to improve over his polarizing opposition while I expect Lee Fisher to make more headway in OH. I'd like to see Democrats favored in at least 13 states by the end of the month.

Notable races trending GOP:

WA: Popular incumbent Patty Murray (right) lost ground when two-time failed GOP candidate Dino Rossi announced his challenge for her Senate seat. Most polls are overemphasizing the impact of Rossi's entrance into this race. Wit the exception of Rossi, WA is the GOP bench was full of weak no-name candidates. WA is a liberal state so Rossi's bounce will likely be ephemeral at best; this race leans Murray.

WI: Relatively popular Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold, a leading Senatorial liberal, gets a challenge from business man Ron Johnson. Still, Johnson has minimal name recognition and Feingold is one of the most respected senators in Congress due to his legislative prowess and unapologetic progressive stances. In a conservative poll, Feingold leads 2 points; this is a Likely Democrat race.

IL: GOP Congressman Paul Kirk took modest lead over Democrat Alexi Giannolias, but since then Kirk has been battered with things such as exaggerations of his military record and gay rumors. No significant polling has been done lately. This is a tossup race.

Notable races trending Democrat:


PA: This looks more and more like a Democratic hold. Since ousting 5-term incumbent Arlen Specter, Democratic Congressman and former Navy Admiral Joe Sestak (right) has enjoyed modest leads over the far-right GOP nominee Pat Toomey, except from one freak outlier poll. Toomey will be the next Santorum if elected (Santorum lost 59-41 in 2006). I'm expecting the far-right Teat Partying Toomey to lose to Sestak by a decent single digit margin if about 6 or 7 points.

NC: Democrat Elaine Marshall (left) came back from trailing GOP incumbent Richard Burr by 14 points; in a recent poll, she is nearly tied with Burr. Marshall is still locked in a June 8 runoff against Cal Cunningham which she is expected to win. A post-primary bounce will likely set in after. Then, perhaps Marshall will lead Burr. This race is often written off as Leaning GOP by many prominent political sites; however, come November, this race will become one to watch. This is a Tossup race.

NV: This race initially seemed like a solid GOP pickup. However, with the NV GOP imploding, Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid looks safer by the day. GOP frontrunner Sue Lowden (right) was plagued by illegal finance accusations as well as stupid comments, e.g "chickens for check-ups." Lowden has since lost significant ground to the far-right GOP candidate, Sharron Angle . Angle now leads the GOP pack and it looks likely the GOP will nominate Angle this Tuesday. Ironically, Reid polls better against Angle than he does against Lowden. If Angle is the GOP nominee, this race leans Democrat; independents will flock to Reid over the Tea Party-sympathizing Angle. If Lowden is nominated, this election is a tossup.

CA: Typically, this would a be safe Democratic race due to the political lean of the state. However, this race is similar to that of NV except Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer (left) enjoys higher approval ratings in her home state than Reid does in his. For a while, it looked like former congressman Tom Campbell would be the GOP nominee; a fiscal moderate and a social liberal, he actually polled ahead of Boxer. However, former McCain campaign advisor Carly Fiorina has pulled ahead; Fiorina has the endorsement of Sarah Palin. I doubt Campbell can recover by Tuesday, as Fiorina leads by double digits and has outspent Campbell 4-to-1. Boxer lucked out; Fiorina is the Sharron Angle of this race. Boxer's numbers against Fiorina have actually gotten better while she lost ground against Campbell. The GOP will blow away its chances of winning with a Fiorina nomination. Also, the Republicans have spent like crazy attacking each other; Boxer by contrast carries zero primary wounds and has spent relatively little. Thus Fiorina will emerge battered and broke from the primary only to face an untouched, well-financed Boxer. CA trends Democrat because Boxer's numbers against the presumptive nominee, Fiorina have gone up. Boxer is a polarizing figure, she is loved by liberals as much as she is loathed by conservative. However, Fiorina's campaign thus far has been utterly comical at times and I expect more gaffes within the next few months from her.