A Few Words About Utah...

I would like to take some time to discuss the Senatorial race in Utah this year. I know the important aspect of it took place a month ago, but I want to offer insights and speculation from the liberal perspective.I know that to Progressives, Utah is a state of minimal relevance, but I just wanted to indulge myself as a political junkie! Let’s start with some basic info. Utah is a red state. Very red. If it were a planet, it would be redder than Mars. Even the color red would say, “that’s red!” You get the picture. In fact in the 2004, Utah was the only state that gave Bush over 70% of the vote. To put that in perspective, even in the Obama 2008 landslide election, he only breached 70% in 2 places: his home state Hawaii and Washington D.C, which typically gives Democrats at least 80%; Obama came close in Vermont with 66%, but you catch my drift. Presidential candidates rarely get over 70% even in their most reliable states; this is a testament to the right-wing nature of Utah. Utah and its 2 neighbors Wyoming and Idaho are perhaps the 3 most solid GOP bastions in the country.
Utah’s two current Senators are the venerable Orrin Hatch, who first won office in 1976, and Bob Bennett, an 18-year Senate veteran. These two have been among the most conservative Senators, although Hatch had a habit of working closely with his friend the late Ted Kennedy. Bennett carried some baggage coming into this election year, but it seemed that only the most reactionary of voters would harbor negative attitudes towards Bennett. While, the 3-term Senator’s record was very conservative, it contained things such as a vote for TARP funding and Bennett committed the crime of bi-partisanship when he worked with progressive Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon on some healthcare provisions.
I personally thought Bennett was a shoe-in; as www.electoral-vote.com put it, I though Bennett would be a “U.S Senator until the cows come home.” Apparently, the cows will be heading home this January. The week before the Utah GOP primary I saw a poll with Bennett trailing two other contenders, Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater; as a political spectator, I was shocked. Utah is the only state in the Union to employ a caucus system within its Primary process. This system lends itself to favoring the most charismatic and often most ideologically pure candidate. In this system, if no one candidate gets 50%, the GOP field is narrowed down to two contenders who names will be placed on a primary ballot. Bennett made it past the first round of voting in a field of 8 GOP hopefuls; the incumbent got 26% of caucus votes to Bridgewater’s 27% and Lee’s 29%. Because only two candidates were allowed on the primary ballot, a second round of delegate voting ensued; this was Bennett’s last stand. Lee finished with 37%, Bridgewater garnered 36% and Bennett 27%...chop!! Bennett’s career axed. Since it was too late for him to file as an independent, Bennett’s only option was a write-in candidacy, which he subsequently ruled out weeks later.

To a liberal, this situation was quite odd. The anger towards Bennett seemed misplaced. I thought that factors such as his connections to the Mormon Church and his clout would salvage Bennett. While he was opposed to virtually Obama;s ebtore agenda, he was about as an 'establishment' candidate as they come. Bennett's father was a four-term Senator himself and Bennett's grandfather was the 7th president of the Mormon Church, a successor to Joesph Smith himself. Even Mitt Romney went up to bat for Bennett at the convention. Bennett’s loss at the convention was almost inevitable; ultra-right organizations such as the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks had been lobbying delegates in favor of Bridgewater and Lee, respectively, months before the caucus. I was ironic that in such an ostensibly anti-Democrat year that the first incumbent to be ousted was a Republican. Bennett did, however, originally run on a two-term pact; he was running for a fourth term this time around. Thus, in the eyes of the majority of GOP delegates, he was already running on borrowed time. Still, many of the original signers of the 1994 Contract with America, such as GOP Rep. Sue Myrick, have broken their 6-term limit agreement, yet have suffered no repercussions. The outcome of this election still shocks me. This would be like the Democrats ousting Sen. Ron Wyden, a liberal, in favor of an even more liberal candidate.
Fortunately for the GOP, Utah is a state red enough that any Republican running for Senate would win in a landslide. The Democrat, Sam Granato polled in the low-30’s when matched with Bennett, so I expect this seat to remain GOP. Interestingly, Bennett won in 2004 with 69% of the vote without even running a single TV ad...my, how things back home can change in 6 years' time!
One thing is for sure; Orrin Hatch is on notice. With his seat up in 2012, this conservative will have to either eat every Democrat he meets or retire in 2012. Hatch an Bennett have very similar records, so had Hatch been up this year, he would have been dumped as well. Hopefully, for Hatch’s sake, the anti-incumbent tide will have regressed by 2012, for now his retirement looks imminent. If national GOP heavyweight Romney, a Mormon too I might add, could not salvage Bennett, Hatch’s re-election prospects are looking increasingly bleak.

PURE SPECULATION:

Orrin Hatch's re-election to Term VII
However, there is reason to believe that should he run unaffiliated, he will indeed win a 7th term; he has enough statewide clout and name recognition to appeal to conservative Utah voters. He also seems like a more trustworthy figure than his counterpart Bennett. Assuming Lee runs as a Republican in 2012, Bridgewater leads in polling so he seems like the man of 2010 to replace Bennett, against an Independent Hatch and a generic Democrat, I believe Hatch will win. Democrats at both the Presidential and Senatorial levels get roughly 30% in general election. Of the remaining 70% up for grabs, primarily right-wing and independent voters, Hatch will win moderates and enough conservatives to win a 7th, and likely final, term. Because of the make-up of the state, moderate voters will veer slightly conservative and deflect to Hatch as they will see Lee as too far-right. Hatch’s brand of Republicanism is conservative yet traditional while at odds with the ideals of the developing Tea Party platform which will motivate Lee in 2012.