If the election were Tuesday...

What I think the 2010 midterm elections results would be if they were this Tuesday, Juns the 8th. This is based on polling from mid-May to early June.

As typical of many political sites, red is Democrat and blue is Republican. Green is obviously independent. The shades of red and blue reflect margins of victory. For example, Sen. Ron Wyden will win by 20+ points in Oregon, thus it is dark blue; in CA , Sen. Boxer will win by a high single digit margin, so CA is blue; Lee Fisher will barely pull out Ohio, so OH is light blue. The same system obviously applies to the Republicans with red. Their are no races in gray states!

A diamond indicates a party switch.

The Dmeocrats would lose 4 seats and the GOP would gain 3; if Crist wins and caucuses with the Dems, as he probably will, the composition of the Senate in the 112th Congress will look like this:

Democratic: 54
Republican: 43
Independent: 3

The Democrats will still ultimately control 57 seats.

Notice the geographical discrepency. The Dems will win in the Atlantic north, with the exceptions of DE and NH. Here, the Dems rely on strong incumbents, such as Leahy of VT and Mikulski of MD and on prominent newcomers in Sestak of PA and Blumenthal of CT. New Hampshire is a possible pickup, but while NH considered a blue state, it has traditionally sent Republicans to the Senate; its pretty much the opposite of Arkansas, while AR is a southern red state, since the institution of the 17th Amdendment, all except for 1 if AR's senators have been Democratic. The Dems will also sweep the West Coast and will likely keep NV. Wyden of OR is a shoo-in, Boxer of CA and Murray of WA are likely to win while Reid of NV will win a close race due to his polarizing opponent.
The GOP would win the "southern block" of NC, SC, GA, AL, AR and LA; FL is a a stretcg, but it is by no means out if reach. In the 2004 Class III cycle, Dems lost 5 of their 6 southern seats, with only Arkansas rerelecing a Democrat, Blanche Lincoln. It is possible, ableit unlikely, that the GOP could sweep every state of the Old Confederacy up in this cycle. Louisiana should be a much closer race, with Blue Dog Charlie Melancon taking on the prostitution scandal-plagued David Vitter, the sole GOP Louisiana senator since Reconstruction. Alambama GOP incumbent Richard Shelby is safe in this solid red state and Georgia seems out of reach for Democrats The Dems brightest hopes in the south are Elaine Marshall in NC Charlie Crist in FL. Crist will win with about 39% of the vote as an independent in a 3-way race and caucus with the Dems. Crist was left the GOP because Marco Rubio, a Tea Party candidate, ran him out; a win for Crist will be a loss for the Tea Party. Marshall is a very apt candidate to take on Burr for reasons I will explain in a later post.
The GOP will win all of 'fly-over' country with the possible exception of Colorado, as incumbent Democrat Mike Bennet has made progress in the polls.
The seats most in play are in the Corn Belt. These states are MO, IL, IN, OH and KY. With the exception of KY, I am projecting that these seats will all change parties. I have a feeling the Dems will win at exactly 2 of the states out of the MO-IL-IN-OH Rust Belt strip; right now the two looking most friendly to them are MO and OH. MO Sec. of State Robin Carnahan runs close with GOP congressman Roy Blunt while Democratic OH Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher slightly leads former congressman and Bush advisor Rob Portman.