2010 Midterm Worst Case Scenario

Even under the worst circumstances, I think at least PA and NV will be close Democratic holds. Joe Sestak has a real David-and-Goliath story behind his candidacy and Toomey will be to far right and carries much Tea Party baggage. Reid will win due to his self-destructing opponent, Sharron Angle. A similar story will be told for FL; Independent Charlie Crist will build a coalition of moderation votes with independents and moderates from both parties to defeat conservative Marco Rubio while Democrat Kendrick Meek will be a distant third. Crist will likely caucus with the Democrats, so FL could very well be the sole Democratic pickup.
The Dems will suffer loses elsewhere. The seats in DE and ND were handed to the Republicans on a silver platter with the retirements of Ted Kaufman and Bryon Dorgan, two excellent Democratic senators.
Republicans are favored to pick up IN with the retirement of corporate Dem Evan Bayh. But the GOP nominee Dan Coats,a former senator, has become a prominent lobbyist and carries baggage, so this race has the potential to heat up.
Otherwise, GOP candidates could slip by in the states of CO, NC, MO and OH.
Thus, the idea perpetuated by some on Fox News and within the Republican party that a GOP takeover of the Senate could happen is nothing more than a false and erroneous assertion. Even if the Democrats only hold a rather minimal 13 seats and the GOP has a good year, Democrats will still hold an 8 seat advantage and will have an 8 seat-cushion going into the 2012 Senatorial elections. For the record, a GOP takeover of the House will not occur either; I'll post a House map later!