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Sunday, June 20, 2010

Some thoughts on Arkansas


Blanche Lincoln always manages to keep the flame burning. She was down in 2004, but came back; the political world was bracing for her to loose her primary, but she beat Halter. Lincoln is a 'survivor' like Crist and Landrieu; politicians who always seem to squeak by in the end.
The ONE thing that is holding Lincoln down in the polls like a ship anchor is her vote for the healthcare bill. THATS IT. I was looking at 2004 AR exit polls, and only 5% of voters said healthcare was their most important issue; of those, 89% voted Lincoln. More interestingly, 20% of voters put the economy as issue #1, and if those voters, 90% voted Lincoln...90%!!!!
The most weighty issue in 2004 for AR voters was Moral Values, with 33% ranking it first; Lincoln lost that category 79-21. Thus, thus this year, Lincoln needs to emerge as the candidate for Arkansas values; I actually think Halter did a very good job doing that.
Bottom line, Lincoln needs to learn from Halter. She must take his 'Washington isn't working for middle-class Arkansans' campaign tone to win over moderate voters, yet to consolidate the Democratic party she must integrate more progressive ideas into her platform.
Lincoln is in a good position to run a moral values campaign. She passed though new child nutrition laws which will combat youth obesity and she passed harsh derivative reforms. Thus she is clearly looking out for children and she's standing up to Wall Street.
If the Dems intend to keep this seat, they must rely heavily on Bill Clinton; whatever political capitol he still has in AR, he must use. I actually think that had Hillary been nominated in 2008, AR would have gone blue, thus the Clintons still have some influence.
Lincoln is in an undeniably tough race; in the last poll, she trails John Boozman 58-34. But...
THIS RACE IS WINNABLE FOR LINCOLN.

So, with all that said,
I ENDORSE BLANCHE LINCOLN. Arkansas Democrats have spoken. While I personally am not overly excited with their choice, Democrats must unite if they intend on keeping this seat.

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