Breaking: Burr 44%, Marshall 43%...or Marshall 45%, Burr 41%

Today, in a poll released by the conservative pollster Rasmussen Reports, incumbent GOP senator Richard Burr is in a statistical tie with his Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall. The last Rasmussen poll had Burr leading 50-36.

More importantly, it has been proven and well known that Rasmussen polls favor GOP candidates by an average of 5 points. Thus Burr's ostensible 44-43 victory turns into a 45-41 loss when the pollster's bias is factored in; this is called the house effect.

Burr is in very tough shape for a Republican incumbent, he is easily the most vulnerable GOP incumbent; his Republican peers in states like South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama are solidly ahead in the polls. These numbers are proof that NC will be a competitive race this year and it could very probably be the Democrat's 'sleeper' race. A few months ago, Burr led by 18 points, no he is tied. The trend is undoubtedly in the Democrat's favor. The way I see it is come November, NC will join WA and CA as states sending two Democratic women to the Senate.