2010 Senate-Nevada

This race has quickly developed into one of the more interesting ones. First, let me say that I like Harry Reid. With the exception of his 2004 landslide, Reid has never won with over 52% of the vote. Reid has been a friend to teachers and universities in his state and has helped to bring clean energy technology to Nevada, which will spur job growth. Reid deserves much credit for crafting the stimulus bill and his role in keeping the healthcare debate alive was crucial. While he is not a progressive Democrat, he has my endorsement. Reid is not only the most powerful Senator in his state's history, but he has become one of the most influential and determined Majority Leaders in the history of the Senate.
I think the Democrats learned from the close defeat of their former Minority Leader, Tom Daschle of South Dakota, and national Democrats will not let Reid loose.
During most of 2010, however, the Majority Leader looked like a goner. With his foremost GOP challenger Sue Lowden reaching as high as 54% to Reid's 39% in the polls, it looked like a repeat of Daschle's 2004 race. The two other Republicans, Sharron Angle and Dan Tarkanian also enjoyed major leads over Reid.

Now, in the three most recent polls Reid leads or ties all three of his plausible opponents. Still, something worries me. Reid's numbers have remained surprisingly static. While the Republicans have dropped from averaging about 52% to roughly 40%, a
significant drop, Reid's numbers are still ranging from 39% to 43%. This implies that he has yet to pick up much of the independent vote; simply put, the Republicans' numbers have suffered because more NV voters are now undecided. Their has been no shift to Reid, rather voters are shifting away from Angle and Lowden and into the undecided column.
Also, as I am ever weary of the upcoming GOP primaries in NV and AR, I can only focus on the gray cloud as opposed to the silver lining. I know this is unlikely, but perhaps Tarkanian is the nominee. If Lowden launches a massive Get-Out-The-Vote campaign, voters could become split between Lowden and Angle. Unable to decide between the two ladies, voters default to Tarkanian. This would be bad; he is the candidate with the least baggage and the cleanest slate in the GOP primary and I think he would be in a position to do better against Reid in the general election than his female peers. Angle will be too extreme in the general election and it seems that Republicans have more or less fallen out of love with Sue Lowden.
Here is an overview of the GOP candidates' merits and negatives.

Sue Lowden
Pros:
-Republican with most cash
-Sarah Palin-like demeanor
-good looking...?
-rags-to-riches life story
Cons:
-Stupid comments; "chickens for check-ups"
-Her numbers have gone down the most
-Accusations of illegal campaign funding
-business/casino baggage

Dan Tarkanian
Pros:
-most low-profile major candidate
-name recognition from sports ties and father
-Rhodes scholar
Cons:
-He's lost BOTH statewide elections he's run for thus far
-He'S NV version of Patty Murray's challenger Dino Rossi in WA



Sharron Angle
Pros:
-energy of the Tea Party base
-most talk-radio endorsements
-the most ideologically 'pure' candidate
-polls trend in her favor
-minimal debt thus far
Cons:
-most talk-radio endorsements
-kooky demeanor (see pic!)
-would make Reid look moderate
-Independents would run from her
-sceintology connections

All that said, the GOP field this year in NV was pretty weak. Had NV's sole GOP House member, Dean Keller jumped in, this would look much more like the Arkansas Senate race as Keller would have posted big leads in the GOP primary. Instead, the choice for the GOP is largely between Lowden and Angle. Lowden is rapidly falling out of favor and into debt; Angle would turn this race into a classic "NY-23."
Projected primary winner: Angle