Progressive Halter looks good to nab Corporatist Lincoln's re-election prospects

Sen. Blanche Lincoln could be the next incumbent to lose a party primary on Tuesday, when she faces Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter in a run-off for the Arkansas Democratic nomination. With Halter leading Lincoln 49%-45% in the latest poll, Sen. Lincoln seems poised to join the ranks of Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Sen. Bob Bennett(R-UT), the two other Senatorial incumbents to be ousted this primary season. Since the original May 18 primary, Halter has consistently led Lincoln by 2 or 3 points in the polls. Remember, the Sunday before the PA Dem. primary, Sestak only led Specter by 1 yet pulled out an 8-point win over the incumbent; its now the Sunday before the AR runoff and Halter leads Lincoln by 4,based on the PA results, I can only imagine how much Halter will win by!
In the primary Lincoln got 44.5% of the vote, Halter received 42.5% and a third candidate D.C Morrison clocked in 13%. Morrison was a more conservative Democrat than Lincoln, if that is even possible. There are 2 scenarios concerning to whom Morrison's share will go to. First, based on his ideological stance, you would assume that he got only the most conservative of Democratic voters; thus hus votes would go ti Lincoln, giving her 57.5% percent of the vote. However, Morrison voters may have been from the anti-incumbent crowd; they weren't going to send Lincoln to Washington again and they weren't crazy about Halter either. If this is the case, Morrison's voters, or the at least the ones who show up at the polls, will likely choose the lesser of the two evils and vote for the non-incumbent Halter. To be perfectly honest Lincoln's situation reminds of some lyrics from Coldplay's song 'Clocks'; "Lights go out and I can't be saved, the tides that I've tried to swim against have brought me down upon my knees. Oh, I beg, I beg and plead..."
Arkansas Democrats have a clear choice: a fraud who undermines the causes of the Democrats from within their own caucus who sells out to corporate interests, or a progressive populist who is familiar to the needs of Arkansans and is loyal to the lofty ideas of the Democratic party. GO BILL!!

Admittedly, from a polling perspective the general election looks rather bleak. AR's sole GOP congressman from either house, Rep. John Boozman seems to be the 800-pound gorilla. When matched against Lincoln, Boozman approaches 60% while she is stuck in the mid-30's. Halter polls slightly stronger; his support is generally about 40% while Boozman gets about 55%. Thus, if Lincoln is the Democrat's nominee, this seat is lost, lost, lost. Halter is very much the outsider in this race; should he be nominated, he will face a 5-term House incumbent. If the mood of the general election is anti-incumbent as well, look for Halter's numbers to improve.
Lincoln's biggest bargaining chips both in the primary and the general election, should she make it that far, will be her Chairmanship of the Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, as she is the only Arkansan to ever hold that post, and her endorsement from Bill Clinton. If she faces Boozman in the fall, she will cling to her Chairmanship like dittoheads cling to boss Rush Limbaugh. The benefits of the Clinton endorsement are obviously less than tangible; Lincoln has not made headway in the polls and to Arkansans, I have a feeling Clinton is seen as somewhat of a deserter, as he has moved onto bigger and better things since his AR governorship. Hopefully, for Halter's Clinton is viewed in AR much the same way Sen. Max Baucus is in his home state, as a 'beltway insider' who is far removed from local politics. Ironically, Halter was on Clinton's economic team that balanced the budget.
Democrats everywhere should prop up as many progressives as they can. If we, as a party, try to preserve our Congressional majorities with dummies like Lincoln, the results will be disastrous! This year we will oust Lincoln and in 2012, I encourage the good people of CT to replace that loser Joe Lieberman and for progressives in Nebraska to set their sites on that chameleon Ben Nelson. Imagine how much better the healthcare bill would have been if we had more liberals like Pelosi in Congress. IN matters such as these, Lincoln has taken decidedly Republican stances.
However, the general election, the groups that have heavily helped Halter, such as MoveON.org and the Seirra Club could very much come back to bite him. Remember, we'd be running a progressive in Red State America, Halter would sharply contrast with former AR Senate Democrats. AR has typically sent moderate and conservative Democrats ,such as Lincoln, Pryor and Bumpers, to the the Senate. This is most probably because the Yellow Dog Dixicrats are still strong in AR. When the Democratic party was the more conservative party, its members would rather vote for a 'yellow dog' over a Republican. This attitude still prevails on the Congressional and statewide level, even as the Democratic party has embraced liberalism. However, with AR trending more GOP a the Presidential level I expect Republicans to have an easier time getting elected. AR was the state that resisted the 2008 Obama tide the most; it gave Bush 54% in 2004 but McCain almost 60% in 2008.
It is quite ironic that in 2008, AR's other senator, Mark Pryor (left) had no GOP opposition and coasted to re-election with 80% of the vote. Pryor is about at the same place ideologically as Lincoln. These two are both members of the the group I call the 'Conservative Quintet' along with Ben Nelson (D-NB), Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA); these 5 are the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus. Anyway, it is ironic that Pryor essentially got a free pass while Lincoln is in for the fight of her career. Both Pryor and Lincoln personify the conservative lines taken by Arkansas Democrats; their credentials include such things as votes against the final healthcare bill.
Thus, MC56's Progressive Politics Post is proud to endorse Bill Halter for his Senatorial bid and wishes him the best in the primary and the general election in November!