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These are the latest 12 polls from the NC Senate race. The set Marshall(H) and Burr(H) represents the poll numbers with the house effect of the respective pollster factored in. Rasmussen has a house effect of R+5, Public Policy Polling has one of R+1 and to my knowledge, Survey USA is among the most reliable pollsters and has no house effect.
Long story short: Marshall has made solid headway, but she still has a ways to go before she can establish a lead over Burr. She has led in no polls, but has trailed Burr by only 1 point in 2 polls. With the house effect, Marshall leads in one poll and ties Burr in another. Only two pollsters have done a serious amount of research in this race; I expect more of a variety of pollsters within the next few weeks,as this race is looking very interesting. I rate this a Tossup race.
Here's SUSA's Pollster Scorecard.
ReplyDeletewow, SUSA sounds like the most unbiased poll.
ReplyDeleteAnd considering the numers they're putting out, Marshall has something to worry about...
ReplyDeleteYes, Marshall has to step up. However, at about this time in 2008, Hagan was trailing Dole 54-42 in a SUSA poll. Dole was seen as a much stronger incumbent than Burr, but the tide wasn't in Dole's favor.
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