2010 CA Senate Stats (updated)

This race has been relativity static. Recent polls have shown Boxer's negatives outnumbering her positives, but she still is ahead of her GOP challenger Carly Fiorina. Boxer on average polls in the 46-49 range while Fiorina is stuck in the lower 40's. Fiorina essentially won a resounding 56% primary victory because she largely bought the GOP nomination. However, in the general election, Fiorina cannot rely on sheer funding. Boxer has a $16 million war chest and is not in debt, as Boxer did not have to fend off early primary challengers and thus emerged intact. Fiorina by contrast, has slightly over $8 million in the bank and is in the hole $4 million from the primary.
In a normal year, Boxer's seat would be considered safe, however, the high unemployment in her state coupled with an invigorated GOP seem to be translating into a harder-than-expected year for CA Democrats. Still, Boxer has few things going for her. She has positioned herself as one of the foremost liberals in the Senate; she has taken very partisan stances on issues such as healthcare and the environment. Thus because of Boxer's liberal, she has a solid and enthusiastic progressive base in her home state; these voters are dissatisfied with the conservative direction President Obama has taken and are eager to send Boxer back to Washington to keep a liberal check on Obama's moderation. Carly Fiorina seems to be out of touch with average voters. As CEO of the tech. giant HP, Fiorina was fired and given a multi-million "golden parachute" retirement plan. A top advisor to the McCain campaign, she garnered the endorsement of Sarah Palin; the McCain/Palin ticket only got 37% of the CA vote in 2008 compared to Obama/Biden's 61%.
Recently, Fiorina has made some ground, but with the house effect, Boxer is back up over 50% in the latest poll. This justifies my Lean D ratings.