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This is just a map I posted to prove a point in a Facebook argument. However, this is my gut feeling 30 months out from the election. Of course the 2010 midterms will effect my prediction somewhat. The Congressional seat apportionment hasn't even been done. Still, I've gone of the most recent estimates. Only the tossup states have electoral votes displayed on them because the red and blue states will more or less be out of play. The make-or-break state for Obama will be Ohio. Obama has 252 electoral votes all but secured; if he wins Ohio, its 18 EV's will bring him to the bare minimum 270 mark.
Maybe.
ReplyDeleteBonn had a point about changing demographics in Texas.
I also think NC will be blue as well...
If Marshall wins, I'll feel better about NC and move it into the tossup column. There is a strong anti-Obama sentiment in parts of NC; Democrats will have to make a VERY strong showing at the polls for NC to stay blue.I think VA will go blue before NC.
ReplyDeleteI don't think TX will be in play until 2016.At this rate, TX will be Slight GOP in 2016 and a tossup in 2020.