My take on the Alaska situation...

Last night as I watched the returns roll in from Arizona, Florida and Vermont, very few things surprised me. I knew that failed businessman Rick Scott would best Bill McCollum for the FL GOP governor's nod. I was expecting a McCain victory over his tea party-backed challenger J.D Hayworth, however, admittedly I thought McCain would win a closer, that he would get the comfortable 24-point margin that AZ Republicans afforded him. When I went to bed at about midnight, Central Time, the only surprise to me was that Vermont Sec. of State Deb Markowitz did not get the Democratic nomination for governor. But whatever, that race was relatively inconsequential anyway. I had predicted correctly almost every primary winner...or so I thought. At midnight, there were no returns out from Alaska. As I turned my light off, I assumed that incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski would easily best her Palin-backed challenger, Joe Miller. I assumed that Murkowski would cruise to victory much in the same fashion that colleague McCain did in Arizona...no big deal, Murkowski wins the primary and goes on to easily keep Alaska locked in the GOP category.

...This morning, when I went to confirm my seemingly obvious suspicion of a Murkowski win, I was quite shocked...with 97.9% of results in Miller was holding onto a narrow, but impressive 51.1-48.9 lead over Murkowski. Wow!!! If Miller wins, Scott Brown's victory would look like any other boring Senate race, I thought.

THE NUMBERS GAME

As of now, Miller is clinging to a lead of 1,960 votes. Does Muekowski have a chance at a comeback? Yes. Remember, 2.1% of votes have yet to be counted. A large portion of these remaining votes will come from absentee ballots; thus far only about 7,600 of some 16,000 of these have been counted. Thus, in order to win, Murkowski would need to get about 5,100, or 62% of the remaining ballots. That, to me, is possible but more unlikely than likely.

Lets look at the most current numbers:



With a lead of 1,960 votes Miller has a small but significant head start as the final 2% of ballots are counted. With 8,200 ballots yet to be awarded, both candidates have a serious chance at winning. However, in terms of sheer numbers, the incumbent faces an uphill battle. In order to TIE Miller, Murkowski would need to win 5080, or 62%, of the remaining 8,200 votes, to Miller's 3120.



In any case, things are looking undeniably bleak for Lisa Murkowski now. In order to get the GOP nomination, she must win the remaining votes by a landslide margin...


OVERALL IMPLICATIONS

At first, I was rejoicing when I saw the result; it seemed that if Miller were nominated, this seat could have a real chance of falling into Democratic hands.