Weekly Senate Polls-Week IV

Sorry I'm a little late with this one...

Not very much good news for Democrats this week. With polls out this week in WA, CA, OH and PA, all four of those states move more towards the GOP column; the former two have moved to tosssups and the latter pair is now in the Republican column. In mid-America, MO seems to be slipping away from Democrats as well, however, only one pollster Rasmussen conducts regular polls in this state. Thus, the Lean R rating of MO may be intrinsically skewed.

However bleak the situation looks for Democrats, there are a few states moving in the right direction, specifically KY and IL. In IL, Alexi Giannoulias has a seven-poll winning streak over his GOP opponent; hence IL is now in the Democratic column. Within the last week, the KY race has gotten more competitive than I was for much of the summer; Libertarian tea party Republican Rand Paul has seem his double-digit lead over Democrat Jack Conway shrink to just over 1 point. Despite Kentucky’s conservative leanings, Democrats have been competitive on the state level; Democrats dominant on the state and local levels of politics while Kentucky has usually sent Republicans to the Hill and voted GOP in presidential elections. Rand Paul may be too conservative for even this red state.


Changes from Week III:
[IL] Tossup -> Slight D
[NV] Lean D -> Slight D
[CA] Slight D-> Tossup
[WA] See CA
[MO] Tossup ->Lean R
[NC] Slight R -> Lean R
[KY] Lean R -> Tossup
[PA] Tossup -> Lean R