Weekly Senate Polls - Week I

LA Sen. Vitter (R); a cheater AND a birther

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For all of the twentieth century LA, elected only Democrats to the Senate. This is what happens when it sends a Republican to the Senate...

2010 Governor's Races

Here's my gut feeling for the 2010 Gubernatorial races. These elkections are polled less extensively then the Seante races, so they are harder to predict. There are quite a few tossups and there are many more close races in the gubernatorial bracket then the seantorial barcket.

Projected number of seats:

Dem. Governors Assn: 22
Rep. Governors Assn: 27
Independent: 1

Joe Manchin: The Richard Blumenthal of West Virginia

As another vaccany appears for Democrats with the death of Sen. Byrd, an political novice would expect the national Democrats to be panicking. However, this seat is turning out much lke that of CT; when Chris Dodd retired, a popular DEm, Richard Blumenthal, came forth and is now considered a shoo-in to hold Dodd's seat. But CT is a very blue state; one would expect some like that to happen, the Democrats would undoubtedly have other strong contenders on the bench to replace Dodd, right? Well, yes, however, this could happen in red states too!
As soon as Byrd died the GOP was eyeing this seat that Democrats had held for 69 of the last 75 years. Enter Joe Manchin, West Virginia's Democratic governor. In 2008, Manchin was reelected with 70% percent of the vote. Moreover, he has astronomical approval ratings which hoover in the mid-70's. Because of Manchin's leadership, WV IS NOT in the red like most other states in the union.
In short, Manchin is the favorite to win this race and hold the seat for Democrats. His prime oppostion would likely come from WV's sole GOP Congressman, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, who has yet to announce her candidcay. However, Capito is widely expected to make a run for the governor's mansion in 2012. Even then, Manchin enjoys a double-digit lead over Capito.

Possible Race Ratings:
Manchin vs Gen. Rep = Safe Democrat
Manchin vs Capito = Likely Democrat
Gen Dem vs Capito= Likely Republican

2010 Arkansas Senate Stats

Ouch. Lincoln is trailing Boozman by an almost 2-1 margin. I've already blogged rather extensively on this race, so I won't go into much detail. In short, Lincoln's vote for healthcare reform is holding her numbers down like a boat anchor; while Lincoln and her primary challenger were at each other's necks, Boozman was smoothly riding the high GOP tide. Even with house effects factored in, Lincoln doesn't hold Boozman under 60% and on two occasions, her numbers have slipped under 30%. I think Bill Clinton will be back in Arkansas quite frequently...
Unfortunatly, for at least the time being, I'd rate this Strong Boozman.

2010 CA Senate Stats (updated)

This race has been relativity static. Recent polls have shown Boxer's negatives outnumbering her positives, but she still is ahead of her GOP challenger Carly Fiorina. Boxer on average polls in the 46-49 range while Fiorina is stuck in the lower 40's. Fiorina essentially won a resounding 56% primary victory because she largely bought the GOP nomination. However, in the general election, Fiorina cannot rely on sheer funding. Boxer has a $16 million war chest and is not in debt, as Boxer did not have to fend off early primary challengers and thus emerged intact. Fiorina by contrast, has slightly over $8 million in the bank and is in the hole $4 million from the primary.
In a normal year, Boxer's seat would be considered safe, however, the high unemployment in her state coupled with an invigorated GOP seem to be translating into a harder-than-expected year for CA Democrats. Still, Boxer has few things going for her. She has positioned herself as one of the foremost liberals in the Senate; she has taken very partisan stances on issues such as healthcare and the environment. Thus because of Boxer's liberal, she has a solid and enthusiastic progressive base in her home state; these voters are dissatisfied with the conservative direction President Obama has taken and are eager to send Boxer back to Washington to keep a liberal check on Obama's moderation. Carly Fiorina seems to be out of touch with average voters. As CEO of the tech. giant HP, Fiorina was fired and given a multi-million "golden parachute" retirement plan. A top advisor to the McCain campaign, she garnered the endorsement of Sarah Palin; the McCain/Palin ticket only got 37% of the CA vote in 2008 compared to Obama/Biden's 61%.
Recently, Fiorina has made some ground, but with the house effect, Boxer is back up over 50% in the latest poll. This justifies my Lean D ratings.

Worst Person of the Week (7/4)- RNC Chair Michael Steele

Ever since this fool took the helm of the GOP National Committee, a vast array of ill-informed, uneducated comments have slipped out of his dumb mouth. This week, Steele asserted that the conflict in Afghanistan was a war of "Obama's choosing." The dummy subsequently elaborated on how the war was not an endeavor that America "actively engaged in or...wanted."
On one level, Steele's assertion can be views as an incrimination of his own party's policy; as well-informed people know, this was a conflict initiated by REPUBLICAN president George Bush. The Bush Administration began the war in 2001. However, this operation was soon eclipsed by another war, an unnecessary war of Bush's choosing, that of Iraq. As intelligence, manpower and supplies were drawn away from Afghanistan and shifted to the Iraqi theater, the Afghan effort predictable began to crumble. If anything, it was of "Obama's choosing" to salvage a slumping mission that had gone sour on the watch of a Republican president.
On another level, this comment shows how politically oblivious Steele is. Even before this week, some in the GOP were calling for Steele to step down due to his pesky habit of lavishly spending RNC funds on things such as nightclubs and luxury hotels. Now, even GOP heavyweights such as Liz Cheney and Bill Kristol are asking for their Chairman's resignation; only the non-interventionist Ron Paul libertarian wing of the GOP still seems to approve of Steele.

2010 NC Senate Stats

These are the latest 12 polls from the NC Senate race. The set Marshall(H) and Burr(H) represents the poll numbers with the house effect of the respective pollster factored in. Rasmussen has a house effect of R+5, Public Policy Polling has one of R+1 and to my knowledge, Survey USA is among the most reliable pollsters and has no house effect.
Long story short: Marshall has made solid headway, but she still has a ways to go before she can establish a lead over Burr. She has led in no polls, but has trailed Burr by only 1 point in 2 polls. With the house effect, Marshall leads in one poll and ties Burr in another. Only two pollsters have done a serious amount of research in this race; I expect more of a variety of pollsters within the next few weeks,as this race is looking very interesting. I rate this a Tossup race.

Outlook of 2012 Election

This is just a map I posted to prove a point in a Facebook argument. However, this is my gut feeling 30 months out from the election. Of course the 2010 midterms will effect my prediction somewhat. The Congressional seat apportionment hasn't even been done. Still, I've gone of the most recent estimates. Only the tossup states have electoral votes displayed on them because the red and blue states will more or less be out of play. The make-or-break state for Obama will be Ohio. Obama has 252 electoral votes all but secured; if he wins Ohio, its 18 EV's will bring him to the bare minimum 270 mark.