Weekly Senate Polls- Week VI Labor Day

It doesn't look good...

Weekly Senate Polls-Week V

Letter: Jindal fiddles as colleges burn

Louisiana’s governor must be a fiddler.

As the administration’s budget fires are razing the state’s institutions of higher education, Gov. Bobby Jindal is certainly absent from any active leadership role to limit the damage.

For now, there are no votes in it.

Perhaps our “mystic masseur” is off instead tuning his image and reeling catchy sound bites and platitudes for his “base.”

It is evident that, at best, Jindal sees public higher education in Louisiana as little more than post-high school student job training, for which the only relevant questions are how many students graduate, and how fast.

From that perspective, why care about or fight for quality? Why fight for institutions that don’t support a controlled political agenda? Why has Jindal failed to provide leadership for Louisiana’s higher education? Why has his administration presented the system with reductions that could result in 1990s spending levels and cripple institutions such as LSU, UNO and ULL for decades?

The simple answer is that Jindal is not a product of public higher education himself and has no personal investment in its institutions.

Does anyone have any illusions about the prospects for future Jindal family Tigers? His alma mater is a New England Ivy that is far removed from the causes and concerns of Louisiana’s people.

Jindal’s post-gubernatorial future will also be far beyond the cares of Baton Rouge — Washington, New York or abroad perhaps — where he will bear no responsibility or cost for the unprecedented damage that is taking place now.

If Jindal will not fight for the future of public higher education in Louisiana, then the people must. There is simply too much at stake to leave the state’s future to someone who isn’t passionate about it: Jobs, health, environment, economy and quality of life all depend on the quality of higher education.

It is time to demand that the Legislature abandon entrenched political positions and find practical solutions to problems through a rational budgeting process and, if needed, increased taxes.

Louisiana cannot just cut its way to prosperity. It must invest strategically, and that includes supporting its colleges and universities, not burning them to the ground while the governor plays his fiddle.

Michael King
academic consultant
Baton Rouge

My take on the Alaska situation...

Last night as I watched the returns roll in from Arizona, Florida and Vermont, very few things surprised me. I knew that failed businessman Rick Scott would best Bill McCollum for the FL GOP governor's nod. I was expecting a McCain victory over his tea party-backed challenger J.D Hayworth, however, admittedly I thought McCain would win a closer, that he would get the comfortable 24-point margin that AZ Republicans afforded him. When I went to bed at about midnight, Central Time, the only surprise to me was that Vermont Sec. of State Deb Markowitz did not get the Democratic nomination for governor. But whatever, that race was relatively inconsequential anyway. I had predicted correctly almost every primary winner...or so I thought. At midnight, there were no returns out from Alaska. As I turned my light off, I assumed that incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski would easily best her Palin-backed challenger, Joe Miller. I assumed that Murkowski would cruise to victory much in the same fashion that colleague McCain did in Arizona...no big deal, Murkowski wins the primary and goes on to easily keep Alaska locked in the GOP category.

...This morning, when I went to confirm my seemingly obvious suspicion of a Murkowski win, I was quite shocked...with 97.9% of results in Miller was holding onto a narrow, but impressive 51.1-48.9 lead over Murkowski. Wow!!! If Miller wins, Scott Brown's victory would look like any other boring Senate race, I thought.

THE NUMBERS GAME

As of now, Miller is clinging to a lead of 1,960 votes. Does Muekowski have a chance at a comeback? Yes. Remember, 2.1% of votes have yet to be counted. A large portion of these remaining votes will come from absentee ballots; thus far only about 7,600 of some 16,000 of these have been counted. Thus, in order to win, Murkowski would need to get about 5,100, or 62% of the remaining ballots. That, to me, is possible but more unlikely than likely.

Lets look at the most current numbers:



With a lead of 1,960 votes Miller has a small but significant head start as the final 2% of ballots are counted. With 8,200 ballots yet to be awarded, both candidates have a serious chance at winning. However, in terms of sheer numbers, the incumbent faces an uphill battle. In order to TIE Miller, Murkowski would need to win 5080, or 62%, of the remaining 8,200 votes, to Miller's 3120.



In any case, things are looking undeniably bleak for Lisa Murkowski now. In order to get the GOP nomination, she must win the remaining votes by a landslide margin...


OVERALL IMPLICATIONS

At first, I was rejoicing when I saw the result; it seemed that if Miller were nominated, this seat could have a real chance of falling into Democratic hands.

Weekly Senate Polls-Week IV

Sorry I'm a little late with this one...

Not very much good news for Democrats this week. With polls out this week in WA, CA, OH and PA, all four of those states move more towards the GOP column; the former two have moved to tosssups and the latter pair is now in the Republican column. In mid-America, MO seems to be slipping away from Democrats as well, however, only one pollster Rasmussen conducts regular polls in this state. Thus, the Lean R rating of MO may be intrinsically skewed.

However bleak the situation looks for Democrats, there are a few states moving in the right direction, specifically KY and IL. In IL, Alexi Giannoulias has a seven-poll winning streak over his GOP opponent; hence IL is now in the Democratic column. Within the last week, the KY race has gotten more competitive than I was for much of the summer; Libertarian tea party Republican Rand Paul has seem his double-digit lead over Democrat Jack Conway shrink to just over 1 point. Despite Kentucky’s conservative leanings, Democrats have been competitive on the state level; Democrats dominant on the state and local levels of politics while Kentucky has usually sent Republicans to the Hill and voted GOP in presidential elections. Rand Paul may be too conservative for even this red state.


Changes from Week III:
[IL] Tossup -> Slight D
[NV] Lean D -> Slight D
[CA] Slight D-> Tossup
[WA] See CA
[MO] Tossup ->Lean R
[NC] Slight R -> Lean R
[KY] Lean R -> Tossup
[PA] Tossup -> Lean R

Weekly Senate Polls-Week III

This was a rough week for Democrats. Starting with the swing state of Ohio. Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has fallen under 40% against former Bush advisor Rob Portman; until now, these two were in a very close race and trading leads. Portman has built a four-poll winning streak and now aggregately leads Fisher by six points, 44-38%. Throughout the summer, Fisher had been posting very slight leads of 1-2 points, however, Portman has pulled ahead and has been leading by more solid margins. Ohio now moves out of the tossup category.

In Illinois, another close race, Republican Mark Kirk is running exactly even with Democrat Alexi Giannoulias; The last poll had the two tied at 40%. Thus, this new poll constitutes a tossup.

Ultimately, no races are moving more towards the Democratic side.

Changes from Week II:
[IL] Slight D -> Tossup
[OH] Tossup -> Slight R
[KY] Slight R -> Lean R

Weekly Senate Polls- Week II

Democrats' prospects on the west coast seem to be improving while they continue to make minimal progress in the interior and rust belt regions.
The 'West Coast Bloc" consists of 4 states where Democrats are favored to win. Ron Wyden of OR is expected to win in a landslide and leads Jim Huffman (R) by 15+ points. In CA, Barbara Boxer continues to lead her GOP opponent, failed HP CEO, Carly Fiorina. In one of the most high-profile races of this year, Majority Leader Reid is gradually pulling away from his Tea Party- backed challenger, Sharron Angle, perhaps the most radical candidate of this cycle. Finally, in WA Patty Murray (D) is in a ostensibly close race with perennial Republican Dino Rossi; Murray has been up by slight margins, but funding and the general lean of WA has made me put WA in the Slight Democrat category.

Good news for Dems came with a new PPP poll in NC. Incumbent Republican Richard Burr leads Democratic NC Sec. of State Elaine Marshall 39-37. More surprisingly, Burr's approval is at a record low and his support for reelection has fallen under the 40% mark. Burr is the most vulnerable GOP incumbent this year.

Changes from Week I:
[WA] Tossup-> Slight D
[IA] Lean R -> Safe R
[KY] Tossup -> Slight R
[NC] Lean R -> Slight R
[CT] Safe D -> Lean D

Weekly Senate Polls - Week I

LA Sen. Vitter (R); a cheater AND a birther

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For all of the twentieth century LA, elected only Democrats to the Senate. This is what happens when it sends a Republican to the Senate...

2010 Governor's Races

Here's my gut feeling for the 2010 Gubernatorial races. These elkections are polled less extensively then the Seante races, so they are harder to predict. There are quite a few tossups and there are many more close races in the gubernatorial bracket then the seantorial barcket.

Projected number of seats:

Dem. Governors Assn: 22
Rep. Governors Assn: 27
Independent: 1

Joe Manchin: The Richard Blumenthal of West Virginia

As another vaccany appears for Democrats with the death of Sen. Byrd, an political novice would expect the national Democrats to be panicking. However, this seat is turning out much lke that of CT; when Chris Dodd retired, a popular DEm, Richard Blumenthal, came forth and is now considered a shoo-in to hold Dodd's seat. But CT is a very blue state; one would expect some like that to happen, the Democrats would undoubtedly have other strong contenders on the bench to replace Dodd, right? Well, yes, however, this could happen in red states too!
As soon as Byrd died the GOP was eyeing this seat that Democrats had held for 69 of the last 75 years. Enter Joe Manchin, West Virginia's Democratic governor. In 2008, Manchin was reelected with 70% percent of the vote. Moreover, he has astronomical approval ratings which hoover in the mid-70's. Because of Manchin's leadership, WV IS NOT in the red like most other states in the union.
In short, Manchin is the favorite to win this race and hold the seat for Democrats. His prime oppostion would likely come from WV's sole GOP Congressman, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, who has yet to announce her candidcay. However, Capito is widely expected to make a run for the governor's mansion in 2012. Even then, Manchin enjoys a double-digit lead over Capito.

Possible Race Ratings:
Manchin vs Gen. Rep = Safe Democrat
Manchin vs Capito = Likely Democrat
Gen Dem vs Capito= Likely Republican

2010 Arkansas Senate Stats

Ouch. Lincoln is trailing Boozman by an almost 2-1 margin. I've already blogged rather extensively on this race, so I won't go into much detail. In short, Lincoln's vote for healthcare reform is holding her numbers down like a boat anchor; while Lincoln and her primary challenger were at each other's necks, Boozman was smoothly riding the high GOP tide. Even with house effects factored in, Lincoln doesn't hold Boozman under 60% and on two occasions, her numbers have slipped under 30%. I think Bill Clinton will be back in Arkansas quite frequently...
Unfortunatly, for at least the time being, I'd rate this Strong Boozman.

2010 CA Senate Stats (updated)

This race has been relativity static. Recent polls have shown Boxer's negatives outnumbering her positives, but she still is ahead of her GOP challenger Carly Fiorina. Boxer on average polls in the 46-49 range while Fiorina is stuck in the lower 40's. Fiorina essentially won a resounding 56% primary victory because she largely bought the GOP nomination. However, in the general election, Fiorina cannot rely on sheer funding. Boxer has a $16 million war chest and is not in debt, as Boxer did not have to fend off early primary challengers and thus emerged intact. Fiorina by contrast, has slightly over $8 million in the bank and is in the hole $4 million from the primary.
In a normal year, Boxer's seat would be considered safe, however, the high unemployment in her state coupled with an invigorated GOP seem to be translating into a harder-than-expected year for CA Democrats. Still, Boxer has few things going for her. She has positioned herself as one of the foremost liberals in the Senate; she has taken very partisan stances on issues such as healthcare and the environment. Thus because of Boxer's liberal, she has a solid and enthusiastic progressive base in her home state; these voters are dissatisfied with the conservative direction President Obama has taken and are eager to send Boxer back to Washington to keep a liberal check on Obama's moderation. Carly Fiorina seems to be out of touch with average voters. As CEO of the tech. giant HP, Fiorina was fired and given a multi-million "golden parachute" retirement plan. A top advisor to the McCain campaign, she garnered the endorsement of Sarah Palin; the McCain/Palin ticket only got 37% of the CA vote in 2008 compared to Obama/Biden's 61%.
Recently, Fiorina has made some ground, but with the house effect, Boxer is back up over 50% in the latest poll. This justifies my Lean D ratings.

Worst Person of the Week (7/4)- RNC Chair Michael Steele

Ever since this fool took the helm of the GOP National Committee, a vast array of ill-informed, uneducated comments have slipped out of his dumb mouth. This week, Steele asserted that the conflict in Afghanistan was a war of "Obama's choosing." The dummy subsequently elaborated on how the war was not an endeavor that America "actively engaged in or...wanted."
On one level, Steele's assertion can be views as an incrimination of his own party's policy; as well-informed people know, this was a conflict initiated by REPUBLICAN president George Bush. The Bush Administration began the war in 2001. However, this operation was soon eclipsed by another war, an unnecessary war of Bush's choosing, that of Iraq. As intelligence, manpower and supplies were drawn away from Afghanistan and shifted to the Iraqi theater, the Afghan effort predictable began to crumble. If anything, it was of "Obama's choosing" to salvage a slumping mission that had gone sour on the watch of a Republican president.
On another level, this comment shows how politically oblivious Steele is. Even before this week, some in the GOP were calling for Steele to step down due to his pesky habit of lavishly spending RNC funds on things such as nightclubs and luxury hotels. Now, even GOP heavyweights such as Liz Cheney and Bill Kristol are asking for their Chairman's resignation; only the non-interventionist Ron Paul libertarian wing of the GOP still seems to approve of Steele.

2010 NC Senate Stats

These are the latest 12 polls from the NC Senate race. The set Marshall(H) and Burr(H) represents the poll numbers with the house effect of the respective pollster factored in. Rasmussen has a house effect of R+5, Public Policy Polling has one of R+1 and to my knowledge, Survey USA is among the most reliable pollsters and has no house effect.
Long story short: Marshall has made solid headway, but she still has a ways to go before she can establish a lead over Burr. She has led in no polls, but has trailed Burr by only 1 point in 2 polls. With the house effect, Marshall leads in one poll and ties Burr in another. Only two pollsters have done a serious amount of research in this race; I expect more of a variety of pollsters within the next few weeks,as this race is looking very interesting. I rate this a Tossup race.

Outlook of 2012 Election

This is just a map I posted to prove a point in a Facebook argument. However, this is my gut feeling 30 months out from the election. Of course the 2010 midterms will effect my prediction somewhat. The Congressional seat apportionment hasn't even been done. Still, I've gone of the most recent estimates. Only the tossup states have electoral votes displayed on them because the red and blue states will more or less be out of play. The make-or-break state for Obama will be Ohio. Obama has 252 electoral votes all but secured; if he wins Ohio, its 18 EV's will bring him to the bare minimum 270 mark.

2010 Senatorial Race Poll Trends for June

June has been a relatively average month for Democrats. They have gained ground in crucial tossup races such as North Carolina, Illinois, and Pennsylvania; yet initially strong Democratic incumbents in Washington and Wisconsin are showing signs of weakness, also the southern states of Arkansas, Louisiana and South Carolina are looking increasingly out of reach or extremely challenging for Democrats.


Races trending Democrat:

IL: The GOP candidate, Mark Kirk, has suffered setbacks as he has been caught on more than one occasion embellishing his military record. This gives the Democrat, 34-year old Alexi Giannoulias room to stage a comeback, as he has experienced a slight rebound in the polls. Also, Mark Kirk is considered to be a very moderate Republican, as he voted for Cap-and-Trade; Kirk could face the wrath of the far-right wing of his party, as conservatives are expected to draft a strong Tea Party candidate. Similarly, the progressive Green Party is fielding a formidable candidate, LeAlan Jones, who could detract from Giannoulias' voting share, especially among blacks.
LAST POLL: GIANNOULIAS-31% KIRK-30% (D+1)

KY: The controversial Libertarian Republican Rand Paul has seen a slight sag in his poll numbers due to some of his polarizing comments. He still retains a modest lead over Democrat Jack Conway; Conway is more of a traditional KY politician.
LAST POLL: PAUL-49 CONWAY-42 (R+7)

NC: Last week, NC Democrats chose their nominee for the Senate seat held by Richard Burr. NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is seen as a top-tier challenger for Burr. In their first Senate debate, Marshall seemed to outshine Burr; she seemed more passionate and authentic while Burr was about as charismatic as George W. Bush. The last poll taken has Burr and Marshall in a statistical tie; Burr is by far the most at-risk GOP incumbent. Expect great things from Marshall.
LAST POLL: BURR-44% MARSHALL-43% (R+1)

Races trending Republican:

SC: With the Democrat's nomination of Alvin Greene, DeMint becomes the luckiest incumbent of this cycle. For Democrats, SC is gone, gone, gone.
LAST POLL: DEMINT-58% GREENE-21% (R+37)

WA/WI: In a normal year, Patty Murray of Washington and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin would be considered safe. However, the GOP tide of this cycle has given way to credible Republican challengers in each of these races. Murray faces twice-failed gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi; Rossi is perhaps one loss away from being considered a perennial candidate. Before Rossi's entrance in the race, Murray had a double-digit lead over a GOP opponent; Rossi is now within 5 points of Murray. In Wisconsin, Feingold, a strong liberal voice in the Senate, is leading his GOP opponent, businessman Ron Johnson by 2 points. Similar to Rossi, Johnson came into the race relatively late. The low poll numbers of Murray and Feingold can be largely attributed to the national frustration towards Team Obama; I expect once campaigning season gets underway both Democrats will widen their leads. For now, I have moved both of these races down from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic." I believe that the only way for Murray and Feingold to loose is if the economy worsens come November. If that is the case, I expect Feingold to fall before Murray.
LAST POLLS: WA: MURRAY-50 ROSSI-45 (D+5)
WI: FEINGOLD-45 JOHNSON-43 (D+3)

NV: Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle has rebounded and now posts slight leads over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Still, I expect Reid to pull through in the end due to his sheer 17-1 funding advantage.
LAST POLL: ANGLE-48% REID-41% (R+7)

AR: Things aren't getting any better for the struggling Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. After barely fending off a progressive challenge from AR Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, Lincoln's reelection prospects are looking dimmer by the week. She effectively has only 52% of her party behind her, as 48% voted for Halter in the primary runoff; Lincoln must consolidate her own base before she can worry about the general election. Meanwhile, Rep. John Boozman has been able to build a landslide leads over Lincoln. While Lincoln struggles to get 33% of likely voters in the polls, Boozman flirts with 60%...ouch. Polls showed that Halter at least held Boozman under 60%. Lincoln essentially won the primary by getting Bill Clinton to vouch for her; if she is to win, she must HEAVILY rely on Clinton.
LAST POLL: BOOZMAN-61% LINCOLN-32% (R+29)

LA: Despite Vitter going to bat for BP in the wake of the oil leak, he still posts solid leads over Rep. Charlie Melancon. Melancon would make a much better senator; he has the passion and record to help LA citizens, Vitter is a tool. This race could get interesting though.
LAST POLL: VITTER-53% MELANCON-35% (R+18)

Races trending Independent:

FL: Govna' Charlie Crist looks good to become FL's next senator. The Democratic bench is weak; the presumptive nominee is Rep. Kendrick Meek, might not even make it out of his primary. Meek struggles to reach 25% in this three-way race. No worries for the national Democrats though; there's over a 90% chance Crist will caucus with the Democrats. The Republicans have unofficially dumped Crist as one official put it, "If the GOP leadership got Charlie Crist in a dark ally, all that would be left is a tuft of [Crist's] white hair." Will Crist looks good now, his lack of an official party affiliation will likely hurt him down the road, as he will hard-pressed to stay neck-and-neck, in terms of funding, with conservative Republican darling Marco Rubio. However, I'm betting on Crist.
LAST POLL: CRIST-42% RUBIO-32% MEEK-14% (I+11)