2010 Senatorial Race Poll Trends for June

June has been a relatively average month for Democrats. They have gained ground in crucial tossup races such as North Carolina, Illinois, and Pennsylvania; yet initially strong Democratic incumbents in Washington and Wisconsin are showing signs of weakness, also the southern states of Arkansas, Louisiana and South Carolina are looking increasingly out of reach or extremely challenging for Democrats.


Races trending Democrat:

IL: The GOP candidate, Mark Kirk, has suffered setbacks as he has been caught on more than one occasion embellishing his military record. This gives the Democrat, 34-year old Alexi Giannoulias room to stage a comeback, as he has experienced a slight rebound in the polls. Also, Mark Kirk is considered to be a very moderate Republican, as he voted for Cap-and-Trade; Kirk could face the wrath of the far-right wing of his party, as conservatives are expected to draft a strong Tea Party candidate. Similarly, the progressive Green Party is fielding a formidable candidate, LeAlan Jones, who could detract from Giannoulias' voting share, especially among blacks.
LAST POLL: GIANNOULIAS-31% KIRK-30% (D+1)

KY: The controversial Libertarian Republican Rand Paul has seen a slight sag in his poll numbers due to some of his polarizing comments. He still retains a modest lead over Democrat Jack Conway; Conway is more of a traditional KY politician.
LAST POLL: PAUL-49 CONWAY-42 (R+7)

NC: Last week, NC Democrats chose their nominee for the Senate seat held by Richard Burr. NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is seen as a top-tier challenger for Burr. In their first Senate debate, Marshall seemed to outshine Burr; she seemed more passionate and authentic while Burr was about as charismatic as George W. Bush. The last poll taken has Burr and Marshall in a statistical tie; Burr is by far the most at-risk GOP incumbent. Expect great things from Marshall.
LAST POLL: BURR-44% MARSHALL-43% (R+1)

Races trending Republican:

SC: With the Democrat's nomination of Alvin Greene, DeMint becomes the luckiest incumbent of this cycle. For Democrats, SC is gone, gone, gone.
LAST POLL: DEMINT-58% GREENE-21% (R+37)

WA/WI: In a normal year, Patty Murray of Washington and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin would be considered safe. However, the GOP tide of this cycle has given way to credible Republican challengers in each of these races. Murray faces twice-failed gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi; Rossi is perhaps one loss away from being considered a perennial candidate. Before Rossi's entrance in the race, Murray had a double-digit lead over a GOP opponent; Rossi is now within 5 points of Murray. In Wisconsin, Feingold, a strong liberal voice in the Senate, is leading his GOP opponent, businessman Ron Johnson by 2 points. Similar to Rossi, Johnson came into the race relatively late. The low poll numbers of Murray and Feingold can be largely attributed to the national frustration towards Team Obama; I expect once campaigning season gets underway both Democrats will widen their leads. For now, I have moved both of these races down from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic." I believe that the only way for Murray and Feingold to loose is if the economy worsens come November. If that is the case, I expect Feingold to fall before Murray.
LAST POLLS: WA: MURRAY-50 ROSSI-45 (D+5)
WI: FEINGOLD-45 JOHNSON-43 (D+3)

NV: Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle has rebounded and now posts slight leads over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Still, I expect Reid to pull through in the end due to his sheer 17-1 funding advantage.
LAST POLL: ANGLE-48% REID-41% (R+7)

AR: Things aren't getting any better for the struggling Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. After barely fending off a progressive challenge from AR Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, Lincoln's reelection prospects are looking dimmer by the week. She effectively has only 52% of her party behind her, as 48% voted for Halter in the primary runoff; Lincoln must consolidate her own base before she can worry about the general election. Meanwhile, Rep. John Boozman has been able to build a landslide leads over Lincoln. While Lincoln struggles to get 33% of likely voters in the polls, Boozman flirts with 60%...ouch. Polls showed that Halter at least held Boozman under 60%. Lincoln essentially won the primary by getting Bill Clinton to vouch for her; if she is to win, she must HEAVILY rely on Clinton.
LAST POLL: BOOZMAN-61% LINCOLN-32% (R+29)

LA: Despite Vitter going to bat for BP in the wake of the oil leak, he still posts solid leads over Rep. Charlie Melancon. Melancon would make a much better senator; he has the passion and record to help LA citizens, Vitter is a tool. This race could get interesting though.
LAST POLL: VITTER-53% MELANCON-35% (R+18)

Races trending Independent:

FL: Govna' Charlie Crist looks good to become FL's next senator. The Democratic bench is weak; the presumptive nominee is Rep. Kendrick Meek, might not even make it out of his primary. Meek struggles to reach 25% in this three-way race. No worries for the national Democrats though; there's over a 90% chance Crist will caucus with the Democrats. The Republicans have unofficially dumped Crist as one official put it, "If the GOP leadership got Charlie Crist in a dark ally, all that would be left is a tuft of [Crist's] white hair." Will Crist looks good now, his lack of an official party affiliation will likely hurt him down the road, as he will hard-pressed to stay neck-and-neck, in terms of funding, with conservative Republican darling Marco Rubio. However, I'm betting on Crist.
LAST POLL: CRIST-42% RUBIO-32% MEEK-14% (I+11)

Worst Person of the Week (6/28)- Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL)

Some in Congress truly make me doubt the sanity of the constituents who had the poor judgement as to elect them. Such is the case with Jeff Sessions. The idea that Sessions can be the Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee to head-to-head with the Chairman, the venerable Pat Leahy, is ludicrous. Earlier in his career, Sessions was nominated by Reagan to sit on the bench in the District Court of Southern Alabama. After presenting his case to the Senate Judiciary Committee, he was rejected; primarily because he made a living prosecuting African Americans and due to a few of his racist comments. I find it quite ironic that he now is the Ranking Member of the committee which rejected him years ago.
Now that Elana Kagan is up for confirmation, he is employing the same hollow rhetoric he used in attempt to bring down Justice Sotomayor. Sessions opened today's remarks by trashing Kagan's mentor, Thurgood Marshall; more specifically, Marshall was branded as an 'activist.' Ironically, the activist judges are on the RIGHT. Sessions noted that Kagan associated herself with "well known activist judges who have used their power to redefine words of our Constitution...in ways that have advanced that judges social policies." To quote Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) " I have two words: Citizens United."
In short, the hypocritical and petty style of Sen. Sessions both deadens the political debate in our country and sends our legal system nowhere but backwards.

A Tribute to Sen. Robert C. Byrd

Today as I was driving in my car, I turned my radio to NPR. A few minutes into the program, I heard Sen. Jay Rockefeller(D-WV) speaking warmly about his colleague, Sen. Robert Byrd(D-WV); the previous night, I saw that Byrd's office had released a statement saying that Sen. Byrd was "seriously ill." Naturally, I as soon as I heard Rockefeller reminiscencing about about his fellow Senator, I thought "No! Byrd is gone!" As an NPR anchor confirmed moments later, Senator Byrd had indeed passed on.
I would like to take this opportunity to pay tribute to the senatorial giant that was Robert Carlyle Byrd. In many ways, Byrd was the epitome of the twentieth century Democratic party; a lifelong Democrat, Byrd stuck with his party as it transitioned from social conservatism to social and economic liberalism. More significantly, the life of Byrd is one that can only be described as fundamentally American.
Born in North Carolina, Byrd was born Cornelius Calvin Sale Jr. Before his first birthday, Cornelius' mother died in the 1918 flu pandemic; Cornelius was subsequently adopted by his uncle and aunt who lived in West Virginia. Sale was then renamed Robert Carlyle Byrd. Robert excelled in school at both the academic and personal levels, as he was valedictorian of his high school class and married his high school sweetheart, Erma, while they were both 19.
The years after high school would shape many of Byrd's political views. Byrd joined the local chapter of the Ku Klux Klan. An impressive orator, he quickly rose to the top of the organization to become a Grand Dragon. Ironically, while Byrd later regretted his affiliation with the Klan, he noted during that his experience there, he was able to acquire leadership traits that would serve him well in the Senate. Byrd later noted that joining the Klan was the "biggest mistake of his life".
Byrd ran successfully for the House in 1952 and six years later Byrd was elected to the Senate with a comfortable 59% percent of the vote. Despite the gradual evolution of Byrd's political views, he was always reelected in landslides; as it was rare for Byrd to be reelected with anything less than 2/3 of the popular vote.
Byrd started life in the Senate as a typical southern Democrat who took a strict Constitutionalist outlook while supporting states rights. A solid proponent of segregation and states rights, Byrd filibustered and ultimately voted against the 1964 Civil Rights acts for over 11 hours. This vote was seen as out of step with his party, opposition to this act was divided primary among regional lines and the northern, more progressive wing of the Democratic party was growing. Despite this vote, Byrd was promoted to the post of Senate Majority Whip in 1971. Because of this appointment, it seemed almost necessary that his views become more liberal and thus more mainstream.
During the Reagan Revolution of the early 1980's Byrd was regarded as a formidable Democratic counterweight to the Republicans. Regarded as a venerable Senatorial historian and expert, using his intellectual prowess to influence the course of legislation. According to some sources, "Byrd frustrated Republicans with his encyclopedic knowledge of the inner workings of the Senate. From 1977 to 1979 he was described as performing a procedural tap dance around the minority, outmaneuvering Republicans with his mastery of the Senate's arcane rules." In time, Byrd became the fiscal and ideological conscience of his party; he was somewhat of a wise 'Yoda' figure.
Byrd served as Majority Leader from 1977-1981 and then from 1987-1989. After leading his party, he chose to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee; as chairman, he steered millions towards his otherwise poor state.
In his later years, Byrd served as a leading Democratic voice in the Senate and was known as the Senatorial authority on the Constitution. As a history buff, Byrd would often draw parallels between the US Senate and that of Ancient Rome.
In 2003 Byrd emerged as a vocal critic of the Iraq War, as he and his close friend, Sen. Ted Kennedy would later tote their votes against the Iraq War as among the proudest of their careers. Byrd pointed out that the reckless Bush Administration had overturned hundreds of years of precedent with the invasion of Iraq. He stated that the USA was always the defender in wars, never the initiator. However, with the Iraq war, the USA had become the very thing Byrd feared: the aggressor; with the 2003 invasion, Byrd "wept for his country."
In many ways, Byrd's 60 years of public service, and by extension, his life, can be seen as a study in contrast. The evolution of Byrd's views are a testament to the ever-changing dynamics of American political and social trends. Through Byrd's service, the changing platform of Democratic party was borne out. Originally a Dixicrat, if Byrd were starting over again, he would almost certainly be running as a Republican, as the Republican platform of today would be a better match for the states-rights, racist, and segregationist policies of the Dixicrats than that of the current Democratic Party. The transition of the Democratic Party's platform from conservatism to liberalism was essentially displayed through the shifting ideological attitudes of Senator Byrd.


Today, the American people have lost a great champion and the citizens of West Virginia have lost their great political patriarch. Senator Byrd was a political giant, yet he never lost touch with his humble, rural roots. Perhaps the most moving uniquely American aspect of Byrd's life is that the foster child of a miner in Appalachian coalfields grew up to walk with kings and queens, and to stand equal with presidents and prime ministers. Byrd's perspectives and attitudes transcended left-right politics and petty partisanship. Instead, Byrd was propelled by the simple duty to serve the people of West Virginia; his beliefs and sense of obligation to his constituents was embodied in his 'can-do' spirit. Perhaps no man has loved a state as much as Byrd loved West Virginia. For now let it be said that the politicians and citizens of America today had the privilege of living and serving in the age of the great Robert Byrd.

RIP and God Bless Robert C. Byrd (1917-2010). He now serves in the Senate of Angels with his friend Ted Kennedy.

Breaking: Burr 44%, Marshall 43%...or Marshall 45%, Burr 41%

Today, in a poll released by the conservative pollster Rasmussen Reports, incumbent GOP senator Richard Burr is in a statistical tie with his Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall. The last Rasmussen poll had Burr leading 50-36.

More importantly, it has been proven and well known that Rasmussen polls favor GOP candidates by an average of 5 points. Thus Burr's ostensible 44-43 victory turns into a 45-41 loss when the pollster's bias is factored in; this is called the house effect.

Burr is in very tough shape for a Republican incumbent, he is easily the most vulnerable GOP incumbent; his Republican peers in states like South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama are solidly ahead in the polls. These numbers are proof that NC will be a competitive race this year and it could very probably be the Democrat's 'sleeper' race. A few months ago, Burr led by 18 points, no he is tied. The trend is undoubtedly in the Democrat's favor. The way I see it is come November, NC will join WA and CA as states sending two Democratic women to the Senate.

Congratulations Elaine!

Last night, NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall won the Democratic primary runoff over state legislator Cal Cunningham. In December, I joined Marshall's campaign and endorsed her, so I was quite excited to see her win last night. I was impressed with her record of taking on institutions like Wall Street and lobbyists.
Elaine is a fighter with a can-do spirit who has a history of winning as the underdog. When she first ran for NC Sec. of State in 1996, her opponent was NASCAR legend Richard Petty, a household name. Despite Petty's fame, Marshall won. This victory is also somewhat of a setback for national Democrats, as Cunningham had their unofficial backing.
This has not been as good primary season for me, as MilesC's Progressive Politics Post endorsed Arlen Specter in PA and Bill Halter in AR, both losing candidates; needless to say, Marshall's win was a relief! Ideologically, Elaine was considered the most liberal candidate in the field of Democrats; this is certainly good news for progressives.
Marshall edged out Cunningham 60-40, however turnout was extremely low. I will go into the particulars and unique dynamics of this NC race in a later post, but for now, Democrats truly have reason to be excited. Cunningham has thrown his weight behind Marshall, so the party should be fairly unified as it moves forward. Again, NC Democrats should be excited; they have chosen a top-tier challenger to run against a mediocre incumbent.
Looking forward, Marshall will certainly need to continue fighting, as the environment of this election year is not particularly favorable towards Democrats, especially in the south. Burr has kept a low profile and based on his own merits, he is a subpar senator; I consider him nothing more than a talking suit. Burr won with only 51.6% in 2004, so he is considered vulnerable. This year, the only thing buoying his numbers is the 'R' behind his name. Once NC voters are more familiar with Marshall, Burr's advantage will evaporate. Any time an incumbent polls below 50%, they are considered in potentially in danger; the latest poll has Burr leading by a mere 45-39 margin.

Some thoughts on Arkansas

Blanche Lincoln always manages to keep the flame burning. She was down in 2004, but came back; the political world was bracing for her to loose her primary, but she beat Halter. Lincoln is a 'survivor' like Crist and Landrieu; politicians who always seem to squeak by in the end.
The ONE thing that is holding Lincoln down in the polls like a ship anchor is her vote for the healthcare bill. THATS IT. I was looking at 2004 AR exit polls, and only 5% of voters said healthcare was their most important issue; of those, 89% voted Lincoln. More interestingly, 20% of voters put the economy as issue #1, and if those voters, 90% voted Lincoln...90%!!!!
The most weighty issue in 2004 for AR voters was Moral Values, with 33% ranking it first; Lincoln lost that category 79-21. Thus, thus this year, Lincoln needs to emerge as the candidate for Arkansas values; I actually think Halter did a very good job doing that.
Bottom line, Lincoln needs to learn from Halter. She must take his 'Washington isn't working for middle-class Arkansans' campaign tone to win over moderate voters, yet to consolidate the Democratic party she must integrate more progressive ideas into her platform.
Lincoln is in a good position to run a moral values campaign. She passed though new child nutrition laws which will combat youth obesity and she passed harsh derivative reforms. Thus she is clearly looking out for children and she's standing up to Wall Street.
If the Dems intend to keep this seat, they must rely heavily on Bill Clinton; whatever political capitol he still has in AR, he must use. I actually think that had Hillary been nominated in 2008, AR would have gone blue, thus the Clintons still have some influence.
Lincoln is in an undeniably tough race; in the last poll, she trails John Boozman 58-34. But...
THIS RACE IS WINNABLE FOR LINCOLN.

So, with all that said,
I ENDORSE BLANCHE LINCOLN. Arkansas Democrats have spoken. While I personally am not overly excited with their choice, Democrats must unite if they intend on keeping this seat.

Best Case Map

If factors such as consumer confidence and unemployment improve by the fall, the Democrats have a real chance to preserve their rather large majority. First, notice the underlying difference between the GOP best case map and the Dem, best case map. In their bets map, the Republicans have much more pickups that are rated at Lean or Safe than the Democrats do; out of the 7 seats the Democrats are could possibly gain, 5 are rated at Slight while only 2 Lean Dem. By contrast, the GOP best case map, aka Democrat worst case scenario map, the seats the GOP picks up are either Safe or Leaning in their favor; the Republicans do not pick up any seats by a Slight margin, save for Colorado. This indicates that the GOP as of now has a better chance of making gains because they are more likely to pick up seats by wider margins them their counterparts across the aisle.
Also, on the GOP best case map, the Democrats do not make any pickups, with the exception of the Independent Crist in FL who I expect will caucus with the Dems. On the Democratic best case map, the GOP makes 2 pickups; DE and ND. These two seats were all but handed to the GOP on a silver platter thanks to the retirements of ND Sen. Byron Dorgan and DE Sen. Ted Kaufman, the latter appointed to fill Joe Biden’s old seat.

A Few Words About Utah...

I would like to take some time to discuss the Senatorial race in Utah this year. I know the important aspect of it took place a month ago, but I want to offer insights and speculation from the liberal perspective.I know that to Progressives, Utah is a state of minimal relevance, but I just wanted to indulge myself as a political junkie! Let’s start with some basic info. Utah is a red state. Very red. If it were a planet, it would be redder than Mars. Even the color red would say, “that’s red!” You get the picture. In fact in the 2004, Utah was the only state that gave Bush over 70% of the vote. To put that in perspective, even in the Obama 2008 landslide election, he only breached 70% in 2 places: his home state Hawaii and Washington D.C, which typically gives Democrats at least 80%; Obama came close in Vermont with 66%, but you catch my drift. Presidential candidates rarely get over 70% even in their most reliable states; this is a testament to the right-wing nature of Utah. Utah and its 2 neighbors Wyoming and Idaho are perhaps the 3 most solid GOP bastions in the country.
Utah’s two current Senators are the venerable Orrin Hatch, who first won office in 1976, and Bob Bennett, an 18-year Senate veteran. These two have been among the most conservative Senators, although Hatch had a habit of working closely with his friend the late Ted Kennedy. Bennett carried some baggage coming into this election year, but it seemed that only the most reactionary of voters would harbor negative attitudes towards Bennett. While, the 3-term Senator’s record was very conservative, it contained things such as a vote for TARP funding and Bennett committed the crime of bi-partisanship when he worked with progressive Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon on some healthcare provisions.
I personally thought Bennett was a shoe-in; as www.electoral-vote.com put it, I though Bennett would be a “U.S Senator until the cows come home.” Apparently, the cows will be heading home this January. The week before the Utah GOP primary I saw a poll with Bennett trailing two other contenders, Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater; as a political spectator, I was shocked. Utah is the only state in the Union to employ a caucus system within its Primary process. This system lends itself to favoring the most charismatic and often most ideologically pure candidate. In this system, if no one candidate gets 50%, the GOP field is narrowed down to two contenders who names will be placed on a primary ballot. Bennett made it past the first round of voting in a field of 8 GOP hopefuls; the incumbent got 26% of caucus votes to Bridgewater’s 27% and Lee’s 29%. Because only two candidates were allowed on the primary ballot, a second round of delegate voting ensued; this was Bennett’s last stand. Lee finished with 37%, Bridgewater garnered 36% and Bennett 27%...chop!! Bennett’s career axed. Since it was too late for him to file as an independent, Bennett’s only option was a write-in candidacy, which he subsequently ruled out weeks later.

To a liberal, this situation was quite odd. The anger towards Bennett seemed misplaced. I thought that factors such as his connections to the Mormon Church and his clout would salvage Bennett. While he was opposed to virtually Obama;s ebtore agenda, he was about as an 'establishment' candidate as they come. Bennett's father was a four-term Senator himself and Bennett's grandfather was the 7th president of the Mormon Church, a successor to Joesph Smith himself. Even Mitt Romney went up to bat for Bennett at the convention. Bennett’s loss at the convention was almost inevitable; ultra-right organizations such as the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks had been lobbying delegates in favor of Bridgewater and Lee, respectively, months before the caucus. I was ironic that in such an ostensibly anti-Democrat year that the first incumbent to be ousted was a Republican. Bennett did, however, originally run on a two-term pact; he was running for a fourth term this time around. Thus, in the eyes of the majority of GOP delegates, he was already running on borrowed time. Still, many of the original signers of the 1994 Contract with America, such as GOP Rep. Sue Myrick, have broken their 6-term limit agreement, yet have suffered no repercussions. The outcome of this election still shocks me. This would be like the Democrats ousting Sen. Ron Wyden, a liberal, in favor of an even more liberal candidate.
Fortunately for the GOP, Utah is a state red enough that any Republican running for Senate would win in a landslide. The Democrat, Sam Granato polled in the low-30’s when matched with Bennett, so I expect this seat to remain GOP. Interestingly, Bennett won in 2004 with 69% of the vote without even running a single TV ad...my, how things back home can change in 6 years' time!
One thing is for sure; Orrin Hatch is on notice. With his seat up in 2012, this conservative will have to either eat every Democrat he meets or retire in 2012. Hatch an Bennett have very similar records, so had Hatch been up this year, he would have been dumped as well. Hopefully, for Hatch’s sake, the anti-incumbent tide will have regressed by 2012, for now his retirement looks imminent. If national GOP heavyweight Romney, a Mormon too I might add, could not salvage Bennett, Hatch’s re-election prospects are looking increasingly bleak.

PURE SPECULATION:

Orrin Hatch's re-election to Term VII
However, there is reason to believe that should he run unaffiliated, he will indeed win a 7th term; he has enough statewide clout and name recognition to appeal to conservative Utah voters. He also seems like a more trustworthy figure than his counterpart Bennett. Assuming Lee runs as a Republican in 2012, Bridgewater leads in polling so he seems like the man of 2010 to replace Bennett, against an Independent Hatch and a generic Democrat, I believe Hatch will win. Democrats at both the Presidential and Senatorial levels get roughly 30% in general election. Of the remaining 70% up for grabs, primarily right-wing and independent voters, Hatch will win moderates and enough conservatives to win a 7th, and likely final, term. Because of the make-up of the state, moderate voters will veer slightly conservative and deflect to Hatch as they will see Lee as too far-right. Hatch’s brand of Republicanism is conservative yet traditional while at odds with the ideals of the developing Tea Party platform which will motivate Lee in 2012.

2010 Senate-Nevada

This race has quickly developed into one of the more interesting ones. First, let me say that I like Harry Reid. With the exception of his 2004 landslide, Reid has never won with over 52% of the vote. Reid has been a friend to teachers and universities in his state and has helped to bring clean energy technology to Nevada, which will spur job growth. Reid deserves much credit for crafting the stimulus bill and his role in keeping the healthcare debate alive was crucial. While he is not a progressive Democrat, he has my endorsement. Reid is not only the most powerful Senator in his state's history, but he has become one of the most influential and determined Majority Leaders in the history of the Senate.
I think the Democrats learned from the close defeat of their former Minority Leader, Tom Daschle of South Dakota, and national Democrats will not let Reid loose.
During most of 2010, however, the Majority Leader looked like a goner. With his foremost GOP challenger Sue Lowden reaching as high as 54% to Reid's 39% in the polls, it looked like a repeat of Daschle's 2004 race. The two other Republicans, Sharron Angle and Dan Tarkanian also enjoyed major leads over Reid.

Now, in the three most recent polls Reid leads or ties all three of his plausible opponents. Still, something worries me. Reid's numbers have remained surprisingly static. While the Republicans have dropped from averaging about 52% to roughly 40%, a
significant drop, Reid's numbers are still ranging from 39% to 43%. This implies that he has yet to pick up much of the independent vote; simply put, the Republicans' numbers have suffered because more NV voters are now undecided. Their has been no shift to Reid, rather voters are shifting away from Angle and Lowden and into the undecided column.
Also, as I am ever weary of the upcoming GOP primaries in NV and AR, I can only focus on the gray cloud as opposed to the silver lining. I know this is unlikely, but perhaps Tarkanian is the nominee. If Lowden launches a massive Get-Out-The-Vote campaign, voters could become split between Lowden and Angle. Unable to decide between the two ladies, voters default to Tarkanian. This would be bad; he is the candidate with the least baggage and the cleanest slate in the GOP primary and I think he would be in a position to do better against Reid in the general election than his female peers. Angle will be too extreme in the general election and it seems that Republicans have more or less fallen out of love with Sue Lowden.
Here is an overview of the GOP candidates' merits and negatives.

Sue Lowden
Pros:
-Republican with most cash
-Sarah Palin-like demeanor
-good looking...?
-rags-to-riches life story
Cons:
-Stupid comments; "chickens for check-ups"
-Her numbers have gone down the most
-Accusations of illegal campaign funding
-business/casino baggage

Dan Tarkanian
Pros:
-most low-profile major candidate
-name recognition from sports ties and father
-Rhodes scholar
Cons:
-He's lost BOTH statewide elections he's run for thus far
-He'S NV version of Patty Murray's challenger Dino Rossi in WA



Sharron Angle
Pros:
-energy of the Tea Party base
-most talk-radio endorsements
-the most ideologically 'pure' candidate
-polls trend in her favor
-minimal debt thus far
Cons:
-most talk-radio endorsements
-kooky demeanor (see pic!)
-would make Reid look moderate
-Independents would run from her
-sceintology connections

All that said, the GOP field this year in NV was pretty weak. Had NV's sole GOP House member, Dean Keller jumped in, this would look much more like the Arkansas Senate race as Keller would have posted big leads in the GOP primary. Instead, the choice for the GOP is largely between Lowden and Angle. Lowden is rapidly falling out of favor and into debt; Angle would turn this race into a classic "NY-23."
Projected primary winner: Angle

2010 Midterm Worst Case Scenario

Even under the worst circumstances, I think at least PA and NV will be close Democratic holds. Joe Sestak has a real David-and-Goliath story behind his candidacy and Toomey will be to far right and carries much Tea Party baggage. Reid will win due to his self-destructing opponent, Sharron Angle. A similar story will be told for FL; Independent Charlie Crist will build a coalition of moderation votes with independents and moderates from both parties to defeat conservative Marco Rubio while Democrat Kendrick Meek will be a distant third. Crist will likely caucus with the Democrats, so FL could very well be the sole Democratic pickup.
The Dems will suffer loses elsewhere. The seats in DE and ND were handed to the Republicans on a silver platter with the retirements of Ted Kaufman and Bryon Dorgan, two excellent Democratic senators.
Republicans are favored to pick up IN with the retirement of corporate Dem Evan Bayh. But the GOP nominee Dan Coats,a former senator, has become a prominent lobbyist and carries baggage, so this race has the potential to heat up.
Otherwise, GOP candidates could slip by in the states of CO, NC, MO and OH.
Thus, the idea perpetuated by some on Fox News and within the Republican party that a GOP takeover of the Senate could happen is nothing more than a false and erroneous assertion. Even if the Democrats only hold a rather minimal 13 seats and the GOP has a good year, Democrats will still hold an 8 seat advantage and will have an 8 seat-cushion going into the 2012 Senatorial elections. For the record, a GOP takeover of the House will not occur either; I'll post a House map later!

2010 Senatorial Race Poll Trends from May to Early June

This is a map of the general trends of polls for the 2010 midterms from May to June. Blue states are states trending more Democrat, red states trend more GOP and purple states have remained relativity static. This map is not designed to show who is winning rather, who has gained the most ground.
For instance, during May, in the Iowa race, Democrat Roxanne Conlin has come within 9 points of incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley. Up until then, Conlin had been trailing by 15+ points, thus Iowa is trending more Democrat and is red on my map.
Conversely, Arkansas is going more GOP. Because of the bruising Democratic primary where Lincoln and Halter are attacking each other, Republican John Boozman has gained ground. In one poll, he polled at 66% to Lincoln's 28%; thats huge.
Note that the states trending Dem outnumber their GOP counterparts by a 2-to-1 ratio. This suggests that the Dems are coming back from the 'brink.' In mid-May Republicans were ahead in 22 states to the Democrats' 10. With a strong candidate in Joe Sestak, I'm looking for a solid Dem lead in PA and I'm looking for Harry Reid to improve over his polarizing opposition while I expect Lee Fisher to make more headway in OH. I'd like to see Democrats favored in at least 13 states by the end of the month.

Notable races trending GOP:

WA: Popular incumbent Patty Murray (right) lost ground when two-time failed GOP candidate Dino Rossi announced his challenge for her Senate seat. Most polls are overemphasizing the impact of Rossi's entrance into this race. Wit the exception of Rossi, WA is the GOP bench was full of weak no-name candidates. WA is a liberal state so Rossi's bounce will likely be ephemeral at best; this race leans Murray.

WI: Relatively popular Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold, a leading Senatorial liberal, gets a challenge from business man Ron Johnson. Still, Johnson has minimal name recognition and Feingold is one of the most respected senators in Congress due to his legislative prowess and unapologetic progressive stances. In a conservative poll, Feingold leads 2 points; this is a Likely Democrat race.

IL: GOP Congressman Paul Kirk took modest lead over Democrat Alexi Giannolias, but since then Kirk has been battered with things such as exaggerations of his military record and gay rumors. No significant polling has been done lately. This is a tossup race.

Notable races trending Democrat:


PA: This looks more and more like a Democratic hold. Since ousting 5-term incumbent Arlen Specter, Democratic Congressman and former Navy Admiral Joe Sestak (right) has enjoyed modest leads over the far-right GOP nominee Pat Toomey, except from one freak outlier poll. Toomey will be the next Santorum if elected (Santorum lost 59-41 in 2006). I'm expecting the far-right Teat Partying Toomey to lose to Sestak by a decent single digit margin if about 6 or 7 points.

NC: Democrat Elaine Marshall (left) came back from trailing GOP incumbent Richard Burr by 14 points; in a recent poll, she is nearly tied with Burr. Marshall is still locked in a June 8 runoff against Cal Cunningham which she is expected to win. A post-primary bounce will likely set in after. Then, perhaps Marshall will lead Burr. This race is often written off as Leaning GOP by many prominent political sites; however, come November, this race will become one to watch. This is a Tossup race.

NV: This race initially seemed like a solid GOP pickup. However, with the NV GOP imploding, Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid looks safer by the day. GOP frontrunner Sue Lowden (right) was plagued by illegal finance accusations as well as stupid comments, e.g "chickens for check-ups." Lowden has since lost significant ground to the far-right GOP candidate, Sharron Angle . Angle now leads the GOP pack and it looks likely the GOP will nominate Angle this Tuesday. Ironically, Reid polls better against Angle than he does against Lowden. If Angle is the GOP nominee, this race leans Democrat; independents will flock to Reid over the Tea Party-sympathizing Angle. If Lowden is nominated, this election is a tossup.

CA: Typically, this would a be safe Democratic race due to the political lean of the state. However, this race is similar to that of NV except Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer (left) enjoys higher approval ratings in her home state than Reid does in his. For a while, it looked like former congressman Tom Campbell would be the GOP nominee; a fiscal moderate and a social liberal, he actually polled ahead of Boxer. However, former McCain campaign advisor Carly Fiorina has pulled ahead; Fiorina has the endorsement of Sarah Palin. I doubt Campbell can recover by Tuesday, as Fiorina leads by double digits and has outspent Campbell 4-to-1. Boxer lucked out; Fiorina is the Sharron Angle of this race. Boxer's numbers against Fiorina have actually gotten better while she lost ground against Campbell. The GOP will blow away its chances of winning with a Fiorina nomination. Also, the Republicans have spent like crazy attacking each other; Boxer by contrast carries zero primary wounds and has spent relatively little. Thus Fiorina will emerge battered and broke from the primary only to face an untouched, well-financed Boxer. CA trends Democrat because Boxer's numbers against the presumptive nominee, Fiorina have gone up. Boxer is a polarizing figure, she is loved by liberals as much as she is loathed by conservative. However, Fiorina's campaign thus far has been utterly comical at times and I expect more gaffes within the next few months from her.

Progressive Halter looks good to nab Corporatist Lincoln's re-election prospects

Sen. Blanche Lincoln could be the next incumbent to lose a party primary on Tuesday, when she faces Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter in a run-off for the Arkansas Democratic nomination. With Halter leading Lincoln 49%-45% in the latest poll, Sen. Lincoln seems poised to join the ranks of Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Sen. Bob Bennett(R-UT), the two other Senatorial incumbents to be ousted this primary season. Since the original May 18 primary, Halter has consistently led Lincoln by 2 or 3 points in the polls. Remember, the Sunday before the PA Dem. primary, Sestak only led Specter by 1 yet pulled out an 8-point win over the incumbent; its now the Sunday before the AR runoff and Halter leads Lincoln by 4,based on the PA results, I can only imagine how much Halter will win by!
In the primary Lincoln got 44.5% of the vote, Halter received 42.5% and a third candidate D.C Morrison clocked in 13%. Morrison was a more conservative Democrat than Lincoln, if that is even possible. There are 2 scenarios concerning to whom Morrison's share will go to. First, based on his ideological stance, you would assume that he got only the most conservative of Democratic voters; thus hus votes would go ti Lincoln, giving her 57.5% percent of the vote. However, Morrison voters may have been from the anti-incumbent crowd; they weren't going to send Lincoln to Washington again and they weren't crazy about Halter either. If this is the case, Morrison's voters, or the at least the ones who show up at the polls, will likely choose the lesser of the two evils and vote for the non-incumbent Halter. To be perfectly honest Lincoln's situation reminds of some lyrics from Coldplay's song 'Clocks'; "Lights go out and I can't be saved, the tides that I've tried to swim against have brought me down upon my knees. Oh, I beg, I beg and plead..."
Arkansas Democrats have a clear choice: a fraud who undermines the causes of the Democrats from within their own caucus who sells out to corporate interests, or a progressive populist who is familiar to the needs of Arkansans and is loyal to the lofty ideas of the Democratic party. GO BILL!!

Admittedly, from a polling perspective the general election looks rather bleak. AR's sole GOP congressman from either house, Rep. John Boozman seems to be the 800-pound gorilla. When matched against Lincoln, Boozman approaches 60% while she is stuck in the mid-30's. Halter polls slightly stronger; his support is generally about 40% while Boozman gets about 55%. Thus, if Lincoln is the Democrat's nominee, this seat is lost, lost, lost. Halter is very much the outsider in this race; should he be nominated, he will face a 5-term House incumbent. If the mood of the general election is anti-incumbent as well, look for Halter's numbers to improve.
Lincoln's biggest bargaining chips both in the primary and the general election, should she make it that far, will be her Chairmanship of the Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, as she is the only Arkansan to ever hold that post, and her endorsement from Bill Clinton. If she faces Boozman in the fall, she will cling to her Chairmanship like dittoheads cling to boss Rush Limbaugh. The benefits of the Clinton endorsement are obviously less than tangible; Lincoln has not made headway in the polls and to Arkansans, I have a feeling Clinton is seen as somewhat of a deserter, as he has moved onto bigger and better things since his AR governorship. Hopefully, for Halter's Clinton is viewed in AR much the same way Sen. Max Baucus is in his home state, as a 'beltway insider' who is far removed from local politics. Ironically, Halter was on Clinton's economic team that balanced the budget.
Democrats everywhere should prop up as many progressives as they can. If we, as a party, try to preserve our Congressional majorities with dummies like Lincoln, the results will be disastrous! This year we will oust Lincoln and in 2012, I encourage the good people of CT to replace that loser Joe Lieberman and for progressives in Nebraska to set their sites on that chameleon Ben Nelson. Imagine how much better the healthcare bill would have been if we had more liberals like Pelosi in Congress. IN matters such as these, Lincoln has taken decidedly Republican stances.
However, the general election, the groups that have heavily helped Halter, such as MoveON.org and the Seirra Club could very much come back to bite him. Remember, we'd be running a progressive in Red State America, Halter would sharply contrast with former AR Senate Democrats. AR has typically sent moderate and conservative Democrats ,such as Lincoln, Pryor and Bumpers, to the the Senate. This is most probably because the Yellow Dog Dixicrats are still strong in AR. When the Democratic party was the more conservative party, its members would rather vote for a 'yellow dog' over a Republican. This attitude still prevails on the Congressional and statewide level, even as the Democratic party has embraced liberalism. However, with AR trending more GOP a the Presidential level I expect Republicans to have an easier time getting elected. AR was the state that resisted the 2008 Obama tide the most; it gave Bush 54% in 2004 but McCain almost 60% in 2008.
It is quite ironic that in 2008, AR's other senator, Mark Pryor (left) had no GOP opposition and coasted to re-election with 80% of the vote. Pryor is about at the same place ideologically as Lincoln. These two are both members of the the group I call the 'Conservative Quintet' along with Ben Nelson (D-NB), Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA); these 5 are the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus. Anyway, it is ironic that Pryor essentially got a free pass while Lincoln is in for the fight of her career. Both Pryor and Lincoln personify the conservative lines taken by Arkansas Democrats; their credentials include such things as votes against the final healthcare bill.
Thus, MC56's Progressive Politics Post is proud to endorse Bill Halter for his Senatorial bid and wishes him the best in the primary and the general election in November!

If the election were Tuesday...

What I think the 2010 midterm elections results would be if they were this Tuesday, Juns the 8th. This is based on polling from mid-May to early June.

As typical of many political sites, red is Democrat and blue is Republican. Green is obviously independent. The shades of red and blue reflect margins of victory. For example, Sen. Ron Wyden will win by 20+ points in Oregon, thus it is dark blue; in CA , Sen. Boxer will win by a high single digit margin, so CA is blue; Lee Fisher will barely pull out Ohio, so OH is light blue. The same system obviously applies to the Republicans with red. Their are no races in gray states!

A diamond indicates a party switch.

The Dmeocrats would lose 4 seats and the GOP would gain 3; if Crist wins and caucuses with the Dems, as he probably will, the composition of the Senate in the 112th Congress will look like this:

Democratic: 54
Republican: 43
Independent: 3

The Democrats will still ultimately control 57 seats.

Notice the geographical discrepency. The Dems will win in the Atlantic north, with the exceptions of DE and NH. Here, the Dems rely on strong incumbents, such as Leahy of VT and Mikulski of MD and on prominent newcomers in Sestak of PA and Blumenthal of CT. New Hampshire is a possible pickup, but while NH considered a blue state, it has traditionally sent Republicans to the Senate; its pretty much the opposite of Arkansas, while AR is a southern red state, since the institution of the 17th Amdendment, all except for 1 if AR's senators have been Democratic. The Dems will also sweep the West Coast and will likely keep NV. Wyden of OR is a shoo-in, Boxer of CA and Murray of WA are likely to win while Reid of NV will win a close race due to his polarizing opponent.
The GOP would win the "southern block" of NC, SC, GA, AL, AR and LA; FL is a a stretcg, but it is by no means out if reach. In the 2004 Class III cycle, Dems lost 5 of their 6 southern seats, with only Arkansas rerelecing a Democrat, Blanche Lincoln. It is possible, ableit unlikely, that the GOP could sweep every state of the Old Confederacy up in this cycle. Louisiana should be a much closer race, with Blue Dog Charlie Melancon taking on the prostitution scandal-plagued David Vitter, the sole GOP Louisiana senator since Reconstruction. Alambama GOP incumbent Richard Shelby is safe in this solid red state and Georgia seems out of reach for Democrats The Dems brightest hopes in the south are Elaine Marshall in NC Charlie Crist in FL. Crist will win with about 39% of the vote as an independent in a 3-way race and caucus with the Dems. Crist was left the GOP because Marco Rubio, a Tea Party candidate, ran him out; a win for Crist will be a loss for the Tea Party. Marshall is a very apt candidate to take on Burr for reasons I will explain in a later post.
The GOP will win all of 'fly-over' country with the possible exception of Colorado, as incumbent Democrat Mike Bennet has made progress in the polls.
The seats most in play are in the Corn Belt. These states are MO, IL, IN, OH and KY. With the exception of KY, I am projecting that these seats will all change parties. I have a feeling the Dems will win at exactly 2 of the states out of the MO-IL-IN-OH Rust Belt strip; right now the two looking most friendly to them are MO and OH. MO Sec. of State Robin Carnahan runs close with GOP congressman Roy Blunt while Democratic OH Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher slightly leads former congressman and Bush advisor Rob Portman.